Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.</li>
<li>Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.</li>
<li>Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.</li>
</ul>


Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.
Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.
Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.


Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.</li>
<li>This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.</li>
<li>Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.</li>
</ul>



Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.
This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.
Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.


Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

<ul>
<li>Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.</li>
<li>FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.</li>
<li>Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.</li>
</ul>


Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.


Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Vedanta sees strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, driven by volume expansion in aluminium and zinc. Major capex projects and debt reduction...

Rahul Jain

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

Vedanta Ltd plans multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating core operations into standalone entities, aiming to eliminate conglomerate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

​Vedanta sees strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, driven by volume expansion in aluminium and zinc. Major capex projects and debt reduction...

Rahul Jain

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

​Vedanta Ltd plans multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating core operations into standalone entities, aiming to eliminate conglomerate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

​Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta sees strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, driven by volume expansion in aluminium and zinc. Major capex projects and debt reduction...

Vedanta Ltd plans multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating core operations into standalone entities, aiming to eliminate conglomerate...

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...