Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.</li>
<li>FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.</li>
<li>Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.</li>
</ul>


Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.


Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand driven by infrastructure and clean energy projects. LME prices have surged 7-8%, indicating a structural shift.</li>
<li>
Higher aluminum prices and regional premiums are positively impacting earnings. Key producers like Hindalco are benefiting from strong operations, cost efficiencies, and favorable market conditions.</li>
<li>Sustained supply constraints and rising premiums, especially from China’s cuts, are expected to drive LME prices higher, ensuring robust growth for Hindalco in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand driven by infrastructure and clean energy projects. LME prices have surged 7-8%, indicating a structural shift.

Higher aluminum prices and regional premiums are positively impacting earnings. Key producers like Hindalco are benefiting from strong operations, cost efficiencies, and favorable market conditions.
Sustained supply constraints and rising premiums, especially from China’s cuts, are expected to drive LME prices higher, ensuring robust growth for Hindalco in the medium term.


Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Canara HSBC Life Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-hsbc-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45165:1" rel="noopener">Canara HSBC Life Insurance (CHLI) (2908709Z IJ)</a> raised about US$284m from its India IPO.</li>
<li>CHLI is an Indian private life insurer, promoted by Canara Bank and HSBC Insurance (Asia-Pacific) Holdings, offering a range of life insurance products tailored for both individual and group customers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Canara HSBC Life Insurance (CHLI) (2908709Z IJ) raised about US$284m from its India IPO.
CHLI is an Indian private life insurer, promoted by Canara Bank and HSBC Insurance (Asia-Pacific) Holdings, offering a range of life insurance products tailored for both individual and group customers.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Canara HSBC Life Insurance IPO Trading - Muted Demand All Round

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> has committed to a massive INR 30k−35k Crs (3.6−4.2 billion) expansion to double its metal production underpinned by record-low zinc costs and high silver contribution.</li>
<li>This integrated, self-funded capacity doubling effort, coupled with aggressive decarbonization and the high-margin silver tailwind, fundamentally de-risks the long-term earnings trajectory.</li>
<li>While the corporate restructuring remains an overhang, HZL’s strategic shift makes it a compelling, low-cost proxy for India’s industrial growth and the global silver bull cycle.</li>
</ul>



Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) has committed to a massive INR 30k−35k Crs (3.6−4.2 billion) expansion to double its metal production underpinned by record-low zinc costs and high silver contribution.
This integrated, self-funded capacity doubling effort, coupled with aggressive decarbonization and the high-margin silver tailwind, fundamentally de-risks the long-term earnings trajectory.
While the corporate restructuring remains an overhang, HZL’s strategic shift makes it a compelling, low-cost proxy for India’s industrial growth and the global silver bull cycle.


India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Nimish Maheshwari

Canara HSBC Life Insurance IPO Trading - Muted Demand All Round

Canara HSBC Life Insurance raised about US$284m from its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Hindustan Zinc: The Silver Underdog

Hindustan Zinc commits to massive expansion to double metal production, leveraging low costs and high silver contribution to de-risk earnings...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

​Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

​Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Nimish Maheshwari

Canara HSBC Life Insurance IPO Trading - Muted Demand All Round

Canara HSBC Life Insurance raised about US$284m from its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Hindustan Zinc: The Silver Underdog

​Hindustan Zinc commits to massive expansion to double metal production, leveraging low costs and high silver contribution to de-risk earnings...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Hindustan Zinc commits to massive expansion to double metal production, leveraging low costs and high silver contribution to de-risk earnings...