Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.</li>
<li>Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.</li>
<li>All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.</li>
</ul>


The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.
Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.
All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.


Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aeon and Seven &amp; I both have large financial services arms, generating a substantial share of consolidated profits.</li>
<li>With cashless payments now the norm, the old business models that relied on fees for cash dispensing are fast becoming outdated.</li>
<li>Both retailers plan major changes to create ecosystems that should deliver a lot more data to improve targeted marketing for e-commerce and retail stores.</li>
</ul>


Aeon and Seven &amp; I both have large financial services arms, generating a substantial share of consolidated profits.
With cashless payments now the norm, the old business models that relied on fees for cash dispensing are fast becoming outdated.
Both retailers plan major changes to create ecosystems that should deliver a lot more data to improve targeted marketing for e-commerce and retail stores.


Aeon and Seven & I to Create Ecosystems Via Financial Services

<ul>
<li>Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.</li>
<li>2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.</li>
<li>While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.</li>
</ul>


Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.
2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.
While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.


Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.</li>
<li>The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.</li>
<li>If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.


Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Michael Causton

Aeon and Seven & I to Create Ecosystems Via Financial Services

Aeon and Seven & I are adapting to the cashless era by focusing on data-driven ecosystems for targeted marketing, which could turnaround financial...

Michael Causton

Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Michael Causton

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

​The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Michael Causton

Aeon and Seven & I to Create Ecosystems Via Financial Services

​Aeon and Seven & I are adapting to the cashless era by focusing on data-driven ecosystems for targeted marketing, which could turnaround financial...

Michael Causton

Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

​Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Michael Causton

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

​Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Aeon and Seven & I are adapting to the cashless era by focusing on data-driven ecosystems for targeted marketing, which could turnaround financial...

Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...