Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Value Act's recent statement might suggest that they have prevailed and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> has yielded to their demands. However, the reality might be less straightforward.</li>
<li>Value Act sought new market expansion, but Seven &amp; I is focused on reinforcing its presence in existing, well-established markets.</li>
<li>Given Value Act's impatience, their acceptance of Seven &amp; I's plan for a 2026 Super Stores IPO, contingent on a business transformation, is unexpected.</li>
</ul>


Value Act's recent statement might suggest that they have prevailed and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) has yielded to their demands. However, the reality might be less straightforward.
Value Act sought new market expansion, but Seven &amp; I is focused on reinforcing its presence in existing, well-established markets.
Given Value Act's impatience, their acceptance of Seven &amp; I's plan for a 2026 Super Stores IPO, contingent on a business transformation, is unexpected.


Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

<ul>
<li>Alongside results broadly aligning with consensus expectations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> announced yet another major acquisition.</li>
<li>The company has agreed to acquire 204 convenience stores in the US for an acquisition price of $950m.</li>
<li>It seems that through aggressive overseas expansion and share buybacks, Seven &amp; I is aiming to retain its overseas investors and simultaneously ward off potential investor activism.</li>
</ul>


Alongside results broadly aligning with consensus expectations, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) announced yet another major acquisition.
The company has agreed to acquire 204 convenience stores in the US for an acquisition price of $950m.
It seems that through aggressive overseas expansion and share buybacks, Seven &amp; I is aiming to retain its overseas investors and simultaneously ward off potential investor activism.


Seven & I Spends Another $950mn on Acquisitions, A Possible Defense Against Investor Activism

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> announced last week that it had agreed to buy the 7-Eleven convenience store chain in Australia for A$1.71bn ($1.1bn).</li>
<li>The acquisition may not immediately impact Seven &amp; I's stock price like Speedway did, given its smaller scale, lack of synergies, and less favorable macroeconomic conditions.</li>
<li>The main positive takeaway from this news is that the acquisition price for 7-Eleven Australia is not as extravagant as the amount Seven &amp; I paid for the Speedway acquisition.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) announced last week that it had agreed to buy the 7-Eleven convenience store chain in Australia for A$1.71bn ($1.1bn).
The acquisition may not immediately impact Seven &amp; I's stock price like Speedway did, given its smaller scale, lack of synergies, and less favorable macroeconomic conditions.
The main positive takeaway from this news is that the acquisition price for 7-Eleven Australia is not as extravagant as the amount Seven &amp; I paid for the Speedway acquisition.


Seven & I Ventures Down Under with 7-Eleven Australia Acquisition

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.</li>
<li>The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.</li>
<li>If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.


Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

To us, it seems that instead of merely capitulating to Value Act's demands, Seven & I is strategically dictating the terms, with Value Act...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Seven & I Spends Another $950mn on Acquisitions, A Possible Defense Against Investor Activism

Seven & I Holdings announces major acquisition of 204 convenience stores in the US for $950m, aiming to retain overseas investors and prevent...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Ventures Down Under with 7-Eleven Australia Acquisition

Seven & I has agreed to acquire the 7-Eleven convenience store chain in Australia for $1.1bn, with the acquisition price being less extravagant...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

To us, it seems that instead of merely capitulating to Value Act's demands, Seven & I is strategically dictating the terms, with Value Act...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Seven & I Spends Another $950mn on Acquisitions, A Possible Defense Against Investor Activism

​Seven & I Holdings announces major acquisition of 204 convenience stores in the US for $950m, aiming to retain overseas investors and prevent...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Ventures Down Under with 7-Eleven Australia Acquisition

​Seven & I has agreed to acquire the 7-Eleven convenience store chain in Australia for $1.1bn, with the acquisition price being less extravagant...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

​Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Holdings announces major acquisition of 204 convenience stores in the US for $950m, aiming to retain overseas investors and prevent...

Seven & I has agreed to acquire the 7-Eleven convenience store chain in Australia for $1.1bn, with the acquisition price being less extravagant...

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...