Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> has climbed above the June 2021 peak for the first time in seven months despite weaknesses in the overall market.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported yesterday that 3 of the top 30 long term investors have requested Seven &amp; I to get rid of underperforming businesses.</li>
<li>Although the company brushed off previous attempts by activist investors, the pressure from long term investors could tip the scales and force Seven &amp; I to focus on convenience stores.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) has climbed above the June 2021 peak for the first time in seven months despite weaknesses in the overall market.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported yesterday that 3 of the top 30 long term investors have requested Seven &amp; I to get rid of underperforming businesses.
Although the company brushed off previous attempts by activist investors, the pressure from long term investors could tip the scales and force Seven &amp; I to focus on convenience stores.


Seven & I: Activist & Long Term Investors Riled Up Yet Again

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. </li>
<li>Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.</li>
<li>How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a> are likely to boom.</li>
</ul>


The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. 
Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.
How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) are likely to boom.


Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A positive earnings surprise for Fast Retailing and Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard hitting Sony have hurt the performance of our skew trade. </li>
<li>Despite this, the dramatic fall in the Nikkei means it is now outperforming the Nikkei since we first suggested the trade. </li>
<li>Looking forward we expect recent volatility to be absorbed over time and we retain conviction on our picks.</li>
</ul>


A positive earnings surprise for Fast Retailing and Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard hitting Sony have hurt the performance of our skew trade. 
Despite this, the dramatic fall in the Nikkei means it is now outperforming the Nikkei since we first suggested the trade. 
Looking forward we expect recent volatility to be absorbed over time and we retain conviction on our picks.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Hit by Sony and Fast Retailing but Outperforming Nikkei

Private Capital Markets

Nitori Holdings / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Iconic retail chain, Tokyu Hands, is to be acquired by Cainz, Japan’s leading home centre retailer. </li>
<li>Tokyu Hands remains as popular as ever thanks to its unique merchandising, but it has struggled to be profitable for a long time.</li>
<li>Cainz should be able to fix this and Hands will be part of Cainz’s plans to become the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a> of home retailing – bringing competition to Nitori.</li>
</ul>


Iconic retail chain, Tokyu Hands, is to be acquired by Cainz, Japan’s leading home centre retailer. 
Tokyu Hands remains as popular as ever thanks to its unique merchandising, but it has struggled to be profitable for a long time.
Cainz should be able to fix this and Hands will be part of Cainz’s plans to become the Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) of home retailing – bringing competition to Nitori.


Cainz Takes on Nitori with Tokyu Hands Takeover

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Seven & I: Activist & Long Term Investors Riled Up Yet Again

We also think it will be difficult for Seven & I to brush off the current investor activism campaign, especially considering that it is likely to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pressure on household budgets from rising prices – real and perceived – are causing Japanese consumers to focus even further on prices. This will...

Michael Causton

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Hit by Sony and Fast Retailing but Outperforming Nikkei

Volatility in Fast Retailing and Sony have hurt the performance of our skew trade but looking forward we expect recent volatility to be absorbed...

Mio Kato

Cainz Takes on Nitori with Tokyu Hands Takeover

Nitori and Muji have pretty much had the interiors market to themselves until now thanks to IKEA's slow rollout but new competition is coming from...

Michael Causton

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