Head of Content, Data & Research, Helixtap

Arusha Das

Head of Content, Data & Research

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

Commodities

<ul><li>IndicatorsFactors at playImpact termImpact on pricesChina stimulus announcements- Announcement of a package of 19 measures to support the economy  - Infusion of funds at 1 trillion yuan ($143.7 million)  - Improved factory activities  - The gradual recovery of domestic demand  - Normalization of China's logistics and industrial and supply chains  3-6 months Overall sentiment 🟢🟢 Physical prices - STR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20  - 🟢🟢 Margins 🟢China’s Zero Covid Policy & property sector - Sign of the virus showing a resurgence in China- More than two dozen Chinese cities to impose certain mobility restrictions- Covid-containment efforts are likely to be vigorously implemented in the coming weeks,- Factory activities will be impacted- China’s economy was weaker in August compared to July, so the economy likely to remain very weak until year-end3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - STR 20, SVR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴US Economy- The consumer price index rose 8.3% in August year-over-year- Core prices up 0.6% from m-o-m in August, excluding food and energy- Fed has been hiking rates for the past six months, and another steep hike likely - Slowdown in demand - Truck tire market steady demand expected, passenger car might be slightly under pressure3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴European market - Higher energy prices - Spot natural gas prices have increased over 15-fold since 2021- Greater exposure to Russia’s geopolitical turmoil- Rising borrowing costs would slowdown in demand- Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contracted in August. - France, Italy, and Britain have a bleak outlook- A slowdown in demand for tire3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Russia/Ukraine conflict- Despite the limited presence in natural rubber, the six-month-old-war impacting the overall demand- Some retreat in the Russian attack - Synthetic rubber supply is impacted, disrupting tire production- Higher natural gas and oil prices pushing energy prices- Sanctions led to some cut back in tire production, yet to come back6 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20, SVR 20 🔴 Margins 🔴Raw material supply and climate changes- Raw material imports, especially in Indonesia, weighed heavily on supply and prices - Rains and flood in Thailand but no impact on raw material supply - The shutdown of factories due to bear demand cues and consistent negative margins - Limited investment on the production side impacts yield in the longer run- Ample volume afloat in the market leading to a glut situation- Volume booked for LTC might see some changes if the market is in backwardation3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Sustainability- Increasing demand for sustainable rubber by tire makers might weed out smaller producers- Limited investment on the production side - Reliance on imported raw material - Europe’s deforestation policy Overall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴Margins 🔴🔴🔴The gradualSource: Helixtap</li></ul>

IndicatorsFactors at playImpact termImpact on pricesChina stimulus announcements- Announcement of a package of 19 measures to support the economy  - Infusion of funds at 1 trillion yuan ($143.7 million)  - Improved factory activities  - The gradual recovery of domestic demand  - Normalization of China's logistics and industrial and supply chains  3-6 months Overall sentiment 🟢🟢 Physical prices - STR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20  - 🟢🟢 Margins 🟢China’s Zero Covid Policy & property sector - Sign of the virus showing a resurgence in China- More than two dozen Chinese cities to impose certain mobility restrictions- Covid-containment efforts are likely to be vigorously implemented in the coming weeks,- Factory activities will be impacted- China’s economy was weaker in August compared to July, so the economy likely to remain very weak until year-end3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - STR 20, SVR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴US Economy- The consumer price index rose 8.3% in August year-over-year- Core prices up 0.6% from m-o-m in August, excluding food and energy- Fed has been hiking rates for the past six months, and another steep hike likely - Slowdown in demand - Truck tire market steady demand expected, passenger car might be slightly under pressure3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴European market - Higher energy prices - Spot natural gas prices have increased over 15-fold since 2021- Greater exposure to Russia’s geopolitical turmoil- Rising borrowing costs would slowdown in demand- Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contracted in August. - France, Italy, and Britain have a bleak outlook- A slowdown in demand for tire3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Russia/Ukraine conflict- Despite the limited presence in natural rubber, the six-month-old-war impacting the overall demand- Some retreat in the Russian attack - Synthetic rubber supply is impacted, disrupting tire production- Higher natural gas and oil prices pushing energy prices- Sanctions led to some cut back in tire production, yet to come back6 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20, SVR 20 🔴 Margins 🔴Raw material supply and climate changes- Raw material imports, especially in Indonesia, weighed heavily on supply and prices - Rains and flood in Thailand but no impact on raw material supply - The shutdown of factories due to bear demand cues and consistent negative margins - Limited investment on the production side impacts yield in the longer run- Ample volume afloat in the market leading to a glut situation- Volume booked for LTC might see some changes if the market is in backwardation3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Sustainability- Increasing demand for sustainable rubber by tire makers might weed out smaller producers- Limited investment on the production side - Reliance on imported raw material - Europe’s deforestation policy Overall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴Margins 🔴🔴🔴The gradualSource: Helixtap

Key Market Indicators  Bear Market In Short Mid Term

CEO, Helixtap

Farah Miller

<ul><li>Sixth train carrying rubber saplings reaches the northeast</li><li>Mini rubber mission to be rolled out in Tripura</li><li>Tripura Skill Development Dept to train tappers</li></ul>

Sixth train carrying rubber saplings reaches the northeastMini rubber mission to be rolled out in TripuraTripura Skill Development Dept to train tappers

Investments Into Indian Rubber Production Gathering Steam

<ul><li>Sellers heave a sigh of relief with prices stable today(08 Sep) Sellers finally got a break from the downward momentum in prices today, with spot rubber market trading at almost the same levels as yesterday.  Roll of the dice: Support level or Short Seller Covering?Chinese traders were rumoured to be short covering after almost 2 weeks of sharp drops.</li><li>This is in line with Helixtap’s technical analysis of the support level at 1,250 USD/MT.</li><li>This movement looked like people “cashing out” before the support levels.</li></ul>

Sellers heave a sigh of relief with prices stable today(08 Sep) Sellers finally got a break from the downward momentum in prices today, with spot rubber market trading at almost the same levels as yesterday.  Roll of the dice: Support level or Short Seller Covering?Chinese traders were rumoured to be short covering after almost 2 weeks of sharp drops.This is in line with Helixtap’s technical analysis of the support level at 1,250 USD/MT.This movement looked like people “cashing out” before the support levels.

Sellers Heave A Sigh Of Relief With Prices Stable Today

<ul><li>Bangladesh exports rubber worth around US$ 47 mn in FY 21-22 </li><li>Bangladesh rubber export gains the highest in over a decade</li><li>Exports for consumption in Indian tyre production a major factor in growth</li></ul>

Bangladesh exports rubber worth around US$ 47 mn in FY 21-22 Bangladesh rubber export gains the highest in over a decadeExports for consumption in Indian tyre production a major factor in growth

Bangladesh Rubber Exports Soar To New Highs

<ul><li>Continental using responsibly sourced Indonesian natural rubber in production of mountain bike tyres</li><li>Michelin buys 51% capital of RLU to be its sole owner, a pilot project for developing sustainable rubber tree plantations in Indonesia </li><li>Bridgestone to tap AI to boost Indonesian productivity</li></ul>

Continental using responsibly sourced Indonesian natural rubber in production of mountain bike tyresMichelin buys 51% capital of RLU to be its sole owner, a pilot project for developing sustainable rubber tree plantations in Indonesia Bridgestone to tap AI to boost Indonesian productivity

Tyre Majors Steadfast On Sustainability, Strongly Behind Indonesian Rubber

Singapore

SGX Technically Specified Rubber 20 (TSR20) Futures: Effective from 16th May 2011, this contract will be migrated from SICOM platform to the SGX-DT platform. It will cease trading on SICOM at the close of business day Friday, 13th May 2011. Trading hours are revised as 7.55am to 6.00pm (no lunch break). Please refer to SGX products website for the new revised contract specifications. Exchange symbol: TF. Product Specifications: https://www2.sgx.com/derivatives/products/sicom-rubber?cc=TF

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Rubber Future SGX TSR20 (ORA COMDTY)

Key Market Indicators Bear Market In Short Mid Term

The key factors impacting the physical market in the short-mid term

Helixtap

Investments Into Indian Rubber Production Gathering Steam

The INR 1100 crore (US$ 143.77 million) ATMA-Rubber Board project to boost rubber production in the north-eastern states of India is making sturdy...

Helixtap

Sellers Heave A Sigh Of Relief With Prices Stable Today

Delayed price assessment and commentary

Helixtap

Bangladesh Rubber Exports Soar To New Highs

South Asian nation Bangladesh is forging ahead in rubber production scripting over decade-high gains in exports in the FY 2021-22, taking the...

Helixtap

Tyre Majors Steadfast On Sustainability, Strongly Behind Indonesian Rubber

While Indonesia may be smarting from the free fall of rubber prices in the international market due to weak Chinese demand, tyre majors seem to be...

Helixtap

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52-week Range

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