Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Derivatives

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)</a> revenues stand to benefit from increased trading activity driven by index rebalancing flows ahead of the HSCI rebalance scheduled for end-May.</li>
<li>However, <strong>our current (model-based) tactical view is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">388 HK</a> stock appears ready for consolidation, possibly beginning this coming week</strong>: overextended rally primed for a pullback.</li>
<li>With the HSCI rebalance announcement still ~2 weeks away, <strong>any pullback may offer an attractive entry point for long positioning at discounted prices.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) revenues stand to benefit from increased trading activity driven by index rebalancing flows ahead of the HSCI rebalance scheduled for end-May.
However, our current (model-based) tactical view is that 388 HK stock appears ready for consolidation, possibly beginning this coming week: overextended rally primed for a pullback.
With the HSCI rebalance announcement still ~2 weeks away, any pullback may offer an attractive entry point for long positioning at discounted prices.



HKEX (388 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of HSCI Rebalance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were 39 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> in the first quarter of the calendar year. </li>
<li>Of the 39 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the HSCI Index in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect from 8 June.</li>
<li>Over US$15.5bn of cornerstone and pre-IPO shares will unlock in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> on 9 July. The stock will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect in August.</li>
</ul>


There were 39 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the calendar year. 
Of the 39 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the HSCI Index in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect from 8 June.
Over US$15.5bn of cornerstone and pre-IPO shares will unlock in MiniMax Group (100 HK) on 9 July. The stock will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect in August.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Suzhou Tfc Optical Communi-A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tfc-optical-communi-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25044:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tfc Optical Communi-A (300394 CH)</a> (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>SFTC offers one-stop optical interconnect solutions spanning passive optical components, active optical components and integration services.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Tfc Optical Communi-A (300394 CH) (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
SFTC offers one-stop optical interconnect solutions spanning passive optical components, active optical components and integration services.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication A/H Listing - Rising Sales, Steady Margins

Verisilicon Microelectronics S / Equity Capital Markets

Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisilicon-microelectronics-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32183:1" rel="noopener">Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH)</a> (VM), which offers custom silicon solution and semiconductor IP licensing services, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>According to CIC, VM was the largest IP provider in the Chinese mainland and the eighth-largest globally in terms of IP revenue in 2025.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Verisilicon Microelectronics S (688521 CH) (VM), which offers custom silicon solution and semiconductor IP licensing services, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
According to CIC, VM was the largest IP provider in the Chinese mainland and the eighth-largest globally in terms of IP revenue in 2025.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: VeriSilicon Microelectronics A/H Listing - Growth Picking up but at the Cost of Margins

Zhongji Innolight   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongji-innolight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6986:1" rel="noopener">Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH),</a> one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Innolight was the global leader in 2024 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.
Innolight was the global leader in 2024 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: Innolight A/H Listing - Early Look - At US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

China

Biren Technology is a Chinese fabless semiconductor design company that develops general-purpose graphics processing units (GPGPUs) and intelligent computing solutions. Its products, such as the BR100 series, are aimed at artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing (HPC), and cloud applications. The company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Biren Technology (6082 HK)

HKEX (388 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of HSCI Rebalance

As predicted Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) pulled back to the support zone we identified this insight on May 8th. 2 weeks down, 80%...

Nico Rosti

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

Announcement after market close tomorrow. There could be last-minute positioning next 2 weeks ahead of inclusion of the stocks in Stock Connect....

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication A/H Listing - Rising Sales, Steady Margins

Suzhou Tfc Optical (300394 CH) (STFC), an optical interconnect solutions provider, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: VeriSilicon Microelectronics A/H Listing - Growth Picking up but at the Cost of Margins

Verisilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH) (VM), which offers custom silicon solution and semiconductor IP licensing services, aims to raise around...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: Innolight A/H Listing - Early Look - At US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.

Sumeet Singh

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