HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the privatization of Henlius failed at the beginning of 2025, we have witnessed its stock price constantly hitting new highs.The market has recognized Henlius’ strong fundamentals and promising outlook.</li>
<li>Based on conservative forecast, the peak sales of important products +  other promising candidates/indication expansion/drug combination/new licensing cooperation, etc., total revenue of Henlius is expected to reach RMB10 billion.</li>
<li>RMB30 billion is the valuation bottom line for Henlius. The upper limit of valuation may reach RMB36-45 billion in the future. Exercise Price of the Options granted is HK$50.25/share.</li>
</ul>


Since the privatization of Henlius failed at the beginning of 2025, we have witnessed its stock price constantly hitting new highs.The market has recognized Henlius’ strong fundamentals and promising outlook.
Based on conservative forecast, the peak sales of important products +  other promising candidates/indication expansion/drug combination/new licensing cooperation, etc., total revenue of Henlius is expected to reach RMB10 billion.
RMB30 billion is the valuation bottom line for Henlius. The upper limit of valuation may reach RMB36-45 billion in the future. Exercise Price of the Options granted is HK$50.25/share.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - Thoughts on the Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. </li>
<li>In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.</li>
<li>Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.</li>
</ul>


LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. 
In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)</a> disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders' rejection). The offer is final. </li>
<li>The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.</li>
</ul>



Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders' rejection). The offer is final. 
The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.


Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer

<ul>
<li>Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.</li>
<li>The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene. </li>
</ul>


Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.
The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.
BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

National Securities Depository / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we review the rally in Chinese healthcare in 2025, track some updates in financial markets infrastructure companies, and see how Korean equities have done since end-May</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review the rally in Chinese healthcare in 2025, track some updates in financial markets infrastructure companies, and see how Korean equities have done since end-May
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: China Healthcare Rally, Financial Market Infra Moves & Korea’s Equity Upswing

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech is a global, innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering high-quality, affordable biologic therapies for oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmic diseases. The company is engaged in biopharmaceutical research and development, manufacturing, and commercialization, offering products such as the biosimilars HANLIKANG (rituximab), HANQUYOU (trastuzumab), HANDAYUAN (adalimumab), and HANBEITAI (bevacizumab), as well as the innovative biologic HANSIZHUANG (serplulimab). Headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company was founded in 2010.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)