HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>Valuation based on Cancellation Price hasn’t fully reflected the potential of Weijing Medical Robot business, nor does it reflect the future growth driven by import substitution due to centralized procurement.</li>
<li>The medical device sector is expected to have a strong trend of performance reversal/valuation repair. Kangji's fundamentals/prospects are moving in a positive direction. Reasonable valuation is HK$12-15 billion at least.</li>
<li>The current Cancellation Price of HK$9.25 is too low to normally reflect the Company's true fundamentals and prospects. Therefore, we're worried that there would be some investors opposing this privatization.</li>
</ul>


Valuation based on Cancellation Price hasn’t fully reflected the potential of Weijing Medical Robot business, nor does it reflect the future growth driven by import substitution due to centralized procurement.
The medical device sector is expected to have a strong trend of performance reversal/valuation repair. Kangji's fundamentals/prospects are moving in a positive direction. Reasonable valuation is HK$12-15 billion at least.
The current Cancellation Price of HK$9.25 is too low to normally reflect the Company's true fundamentals and prospects. Therefore, we're worried that there would be some investors opposing this privatization.


Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization - The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 12th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Kangji Medical (9997 HK)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.</li>
<li>The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.</li>
<li>I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today. </li>
</ul>


On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today. 


Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a>'s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.</li>
</ul>



3SBio Inc (1530 HK)'s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.

3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.
There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.


3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> is seeking to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Shareholder%20Circular.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=867134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc is now out</a> for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. 
The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization - The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive

The Cancellation Price is too low to normally reflect Kangji's true fundamentals/outlook. The whole industry is moving in positive direction. We’re...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

I expect this Offer to up. Assuming late Jan completion, I'd pay up to ~HK$8.67/share for a 15% annualised return. Currently trading at HK$8.59...

David Blennerhassett

3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars

3SBio could be added to a global index in August. There is large positioning in the stock, but industry momentum could lead to further upside in...

Brian Freitas

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

Clean, full Offer. MAND is trading around ~2.1%/10.8% gross/annualised, assuming late Jan 2026 payment. Expect more accretion/recycling to come in...

David Blennerhassett

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