Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Junshi once generated sales and profits in scale, but lost money again. Its story suddenly changed from cancer drugs to COVID-19. We have lost sight of its development direction.</li>
<li>Junshi's commercialization history has lost its reference value for confirming the outlook. The calculation of peak sales doesn’t make much sense, because they cannot help Junshi turn losses into profits.</li>
<li>The current market value still has too much “bubble”, and COVID-19 drug is a major “interference” to the valuation. We analyzed our thoughts on future valuation by excluding COVID-19 projects.  </li>
</ul>


Junshi once generated sales and profits in scale, but lost money again. Its story suddenly changed from cancer drugs to COVID-19. We have lost sight of its development direction.
Junshi's commercialization history has lost its reference value for confirming the outlook. The calculation of peak sales doesn’t make much sense, because they cannot help Junshi turn losses into profits.
The current market value still has too much “bubble”, and COVID-19 drug is a major “interference” to the valuation. We analyzed our thoughts on future valuation by excluding COVID-19 projects.  


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH)- Junshi Has Changed Its Story from Tumor to COVID-19?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.2% as of Jan 6th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week on week, led by utilities, real estate, financials and offset by health care, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Minsheng, Junshi, YOFC, Huaneng Power, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.2% as of Jan 6th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week on week, led by utilities, real estate, financials and offset by health care, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Minsheng, Junshi, YOFC, Huaneng Power, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 6th): Weichai Power, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Minsheng, Junshi, YOFC

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.8% as of Dec 30th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.0ppt weeok on week, led by utilities, real estate, consumer discretionary and offset by communication services, consumer staples, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, Weichai Power, Baiyunshan, China Telecom, Sinopec Oilfield, Cosco Shipping.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.8% as of Dec 30th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.0ppt weeok on week, led by utilities, real estate, consumer discretionary and offset by communication services, consumer staples, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, Weichai Power, Baiyunshan, China Telecom, Sinopec Oilfield, Cosco Shipping.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 30th): Xinjiang Goldwind, Weichai Power, Baiyunshan

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.8% as of Dec 23rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.6ppt weeok on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, energy and offset by information technology, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Gold Wind, Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, China Minsheng, Shanghai Junshi, Luoyang Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.8% as of Dec 23rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.6ppt weeok on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, energy and offset by information technology, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Gold Wind, Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Shenhua, China Minsheng, Shanghai Junshi, Luoyang Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 23rd): Xinjiang Gold Wind, Haier Smart Home

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (688180 CH)

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

We forecast 50 changes a side at the June rebal leading to a one-way turnover of 11.47% & in a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH)- Junshi Has Changed Its Story from Tumor to COVID-19?

After Junshi's story changed from tumor to COVID-19, we've lost sight of its future direction.The pipeline can't help Junshi turn loss into...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 6th): Weichai Power, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Minsheng, Junshi, YOFC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Weichai Power, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Minsheng, Junshi, YOFC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 30th): Xinjiang Goldwind, Weichai Power, Baiyunshan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Xinjiang Goldwind, Weichai Power, Baiyunshan, China Telecom,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 23rd): Xinjiang Gold Wind, Haier Smart Home

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Xinjiang Gold Wind, Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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