Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<p>SciClone Pharma, a pharmaceutical company with a focus on sales of oncology and infectious disease drugs in China, raised HKD 2,039 million (USD 262m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wed, Mar 3rd.</p>
<p>In our previous note, we discussed that the company has a long history but has a heavy reliance on a single drug Zadaxin which has dubious efficacy as it has not managed to obtain FDA approval for its otherwise approved indication in China. The company tried to expand the indication based on its ability to enhance the immune system to fight against diseases. The company's near-term revenue driver mainly comes from the consolidation of the sales from Pfizer products after the transfer of rights. However, we think the products from both Pfizer and Baxter are not attractive overall. The products from Baxter have been in the market for decades. Quality of the management team is mediocre with a focus on sales experience and not R&amp;D experience. So is the quality of financial investors which are mostly domestic private equity funds.</p>
<p>In this note, we look at the updates since our last note. We were bearish with the deal and with the recent correction in the market, we think there is a chance that the deal goes under water post listing.</p>
<div>
<h2>Our previous coverage on SciClone</h2>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sciclone-pharma-pre-ipo-rejuvenation-of-old-drugs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SciClone Pharma (赛生药业) Pre-IPO: Rejuvenation of old drugs</a></p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sciclone-pharma-pre-ipo-phip-updates-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SciClone Pharma (赛生药业) Pre-IPO: PHIP updates and thoughts on valuation</a></p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sciclone-ipo-a-mediocre-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SciClone (赛生药业) IPO: A Mediocre Deal</a></li>
</ul>
</div>

SciClone Pharma, a pharmaceutical company with a focus on sales of oncology and infectious disease drugs in China, raised HKD 2,039 million (USD 262m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wed, Mar 3rd.
In our previous note, we discussed that the company has a long history but has a heavy reliance on a single drug Zadaxin which has dubious efficacy as it has not managed to obtain FDA approval for its otherwise approved indication in China. The company tried to expand the indication based on its ability to enhance the immune system to fight against diseases. The company's near-term revenue driver mainly comes from the consolidation of the sales from Pfizer products after the transfer of rights. However, we think the products from both Pfizer and Baxter are not attractive overall. The products from Baxter have been in the market for decades. Quality of the management team is mediocre with a focus on sales experience and not R&amp;D experience. So is the quality of financial investors which are mostly domestic private equity funds.
In this note, we look at the updates since our last note. We were bearish with the deal and with the recent correction in the market, we think there is a chance that the deal goes under water post listing.

Our previous coverage on SciClone




SciClone Pharma (赛生药业) Pre-IPO: Rejuvenation of old drugs


SciClone Pharma (赛生药业) Pre-IPO: PHIP updates and thoughts on valuation

SciClone (赛生药业) IPO: A Mediocre Deal



SciClone (赛生药业) IPO Trading: Bifurcation of Demand

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Suntien Green Energy / Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Several weeks ago, I gave the warning H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.</p>
<p>They have started to move wider again, and given the global form in risk and higher volatility right now, I would not be surprised if they continued a bit wider.</p>
</div><div>
<p>Last week, in the first full week after the end of all the Chinese New Year festivities, all but one sector saw average spreads widen, and market-wide, spreads had their worst week in quite a while.</p>
<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>+ 2.55%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.32%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  1.64%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 1.98%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>+ 0.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 0.62%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  1.52%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  0.62%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.48%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  0.57%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.66%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>+ 0.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 1.06%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.02%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  0.18%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 1.92%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p><strong>+ 0.76%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p><strong>-  0.33%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p><strong>+ 1.80%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Developers saw their Hs rise dramatically on the week on new rules about land sales which would appear to favor large developers over smaller developers, but few have an H/A spread presence.</p>
</div><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div>
<p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/379/original/Screenshot+2021-02-28+at+7.50.25+PM.png?1614513037" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191379"></figure></section>
</div><p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/402/original/Screenshot+2021-02-28+at+9.36.30+PM.png?1614519456" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191402"></figure></section><p></p><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2><ul>
<li>There were 78 recommendations last week. </li>
<li>The 33 short recommendations gained an average of 1.70%, outperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 1.22%). That is alpha of 48bp.</li>
<li>The 45 long recommendations averaged losses of 76bp during the week, outperforming the market as a whole by 46bp. The combined total package was up 0.27% for the week, with 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias. </li>
</ul><hr><section><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div>
<div><p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads widened on average 1.65% over the past week, with the sector continuing to see significant bumpiness. </p></div>
<div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> saw its spread move 2.9% narrower last week after widening 3.1% in the previous two weeks. It is now 3.7% narrower over four weeks.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> narrowed too, but the others in the space widened. </li>
<li>All but one stock in the sector saw its H-share decline in double digit percentages. The average H in the sector moved down 15.9% in the week. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> was spared that indignity, seeings its H fall 'only' 9.7%.</li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$2bn of stock since the 10th of February, purchasing only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> on a net basis.</li>
</ul></div>
<div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. </p>
<p>Those four trades gained an average of 3.58% in spread terms on the week.</p>
</div></div></div>
<section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/384/original/Screenshot+2021-02-28+at+8.09.50+PM.png?1614514204" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191384"></figure><p></p></section></section></section><section><em>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</em></section></section>


Several weeks ago, I gave the warning H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.
They have started to move wider again, and given the global form in risk and higher volatility right now, I would not be surprised if they continued a bit wider.

Last week, in the first full week after the end of all the Chinese New Year festivities, all but one sector saw average spreads widen, and market-wide, spreads had their worst week in quite a while.


Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
-  1.65%
-  1.20%
+ 2.55%
+ 2.32%


Energy
+ 0.67%
+ 1.43%
-  1.64%
+ 1.98%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
-  1.12%
+ 0.10%
+ 0.29%
+ 0.62%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
-  2.86%
+ 1.45%
-  1.52%
+ 2.29%


Industrials
-  1.20%
+ 0.26%
-  0.62%
+ 2.48%


Materials
-  0.84%
+ 3.08%
-  0.57%
+ 2.66%


Utilities
-  0.14%
+ 0.99%
+ 0.25%
+ 1.06%


Sector Average
-  1.02%
+ 0.87%
-  0.18%
+ 1.92%


All Market Average
-  1.22%
+ 0.76%
-  0.33%
+ 1.80%


Developers saw their Hs rise dramatically on the week on new rules about land sales which would appear to favor large developers over smaller developers, but few have an H/A spread presence.


The H/A Spread Market

The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. 

The average discount appears not to want to tighten. Last Week's Recommendations
There were 78 recommendations last week. 
The 33 short recommendations gained an average of 1.70%, outperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 1.22%). That is alpha of 48bp.
The 45 long recommendations averaged losses of 76bp during the week, outperforming the market as a whole by 46bp. The combined total package was up 0.27% for the week, with 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias. 
Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads widened on average 1.65% over the past week, with the sector continuing to see significant bumpiness. 


BYD (1211 HK) saw its spread move 2.9% narrower last week after widening 3.1% in the previous two weeks. It is now 3.7% narrower over four weeks.  Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) narrowed too, but the others in the space widened. 
All but one stock in the sector saw its H-share decline in double digit percentages. The average H in the sector moved down 15.9% in the week. Only Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was spared that indignity, seeings its H fall 'only' 9.7%.
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$2bn of stock since the 10th of February, purchasing only Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) on a net basis.


Last week, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 3.58% in spread terms on the week.

For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Strong Dispersion, Strong Alpha; Brokers Beat Banks

<p>Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.</p><p>In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last<br>Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous<br>Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks<br>Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks<br>Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.55%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.32%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.62%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.64%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.98%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.59%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.62%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.73%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.52%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.27%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.62%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.48%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.30%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.57%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.66%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.95%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.06%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.45%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.18%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.92%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.41%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p>This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. </p></div><div><div><h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3></div></div><div>
<p>The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/832/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.17.17+PM.png?1613812651" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189832"></figure></section><hr>
</div><div><div><h3>Consumer Sector</h3></div></div><div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. </p>
<p>Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.</p>
</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/833/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.28.45+PM.png?1613813350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189833"></figure></section><p>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</p>

Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
-  1.20%
+ 2.55%
+ 2.32%
-  2.62%


Energy
+ 1.43%
-  1.64%
+ 1.98%
-  0.59%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.10%
+ 0.29%
+ 0.62%
-  1.73%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.45%
-  1.52%
+ 2.29%
-  0.27%


Industrials
+ 0.26%
-  0.62%
+ 2.48%
-  1.30%


Materials
+ 3.08%
-  0.57%
+ 2.66%
-  0.95%


Utilities
+ 0.99%
+ 0.25%
+ 1.06%
-  2.45%


Sector Average
+ 0.87%
-  0.18%
+ 1.92%
-  1.41%

This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. The H/A Spread Market
The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. 

Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. 
BYD (1211 HK) saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.

Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>A recent addition is the possible status of H/A-share companies in the monitor which are subject to the Trump Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. They are separated into three types (Possible Direct Qualifying Entity, Possible Indirect Qualifying Entity, and 20+%-owned by Qualifying Entity). They are color-coded as below.</p>
</div>
<section>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/784/original/image?1606541170" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174784"></figure>
</section>
<div>
<p>For more on the list of names, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trump-s-executive-order-on-chinese-military-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45259" rel="noopener">Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies</a>. </p>
</div>
<hr>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week saw mixed movement in H/A spreads but on average they were narrower.</p>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/829/original/Screenshot%202020-11-28%20at%206.25.16%20PM.png?1606559131" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174829"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
<p>Average performance of the 39 recommendations (long 27, short 12) from last week was for a profit of 0.67% per trade.</p>
<p>There are 43 recommendations for the upcoming week.</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p>The first sector discussed is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 0.6% this past week after narrowing 2.7% the week before. Spreads are now tighter by 2.1% on average over a four-week period. Four of six liquid Hs outperformed their As.</p>
<p>Southbound accounts were large-ish net buyers on the week. There were three net buys and three net sells but the net buying ended up being all <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, again. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> saw significant net selling. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week I recommended staying long the H vs A on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and that spread gained 1.6% for the week (after gaining 4.7% the week before when it was also recommended). This past week I put out the Weekly late on Monday (after 2pm), when BYD in Hong Kong had gained 3.7% vs the As on the day, and so recommended implementing a short BYD (1211 HK) H vs A share trade and from that point or even from the end of the day or the next, the Hs actually underperformed the As by 0.4%. </p>
<p>See below the fold for this week's recommendations.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<section class="figure">
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/809/original/Screenshot%202020-11-28%20at%205.32.56%20PM.png?1606556000" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174809"></figure>
</section>
<p></p>
</section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section>
<section class="figure">For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</section>
</section>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



A recent addition is the possible status of H/A-share companies in the monitor which are subject to the Trump Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. They are separated into three types (Possible Direct Qualifying Entity, Possible Indirect Qualifying Entity, and 20+%-owned by Qualifying Entity). They are color-coded as below.





For more on the list of names, please see Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. 



This past week saw mixed movement in H/A spreads but on average they were narrower.




Average performance of the 39 recommendations (long 27, short 12) from last week was for a profit of 0.67% per trade.
There are 43 recommendations for the upcoming week.



The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 0.6% this past week after narrowing 2.7% the week before. Spreads are now tighter by 2.1% on average over a four-week period. Four of six liquid Hs outperformed their As.
Southbound accounts were large-ish net buyers on the week. There were three net buys and three net sells but the net buying ended up being all BYD (1211 HK), again. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) saw significant net selling. 




Last week I recommended staying long the H vs A on Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and that spread gained 1.6% for the week (after gaining 4.7% the week before when it was also recommended). This past week I put out the Weekly late on Monday (after 2pm), when BYD in Hong Kong had gained 3.7% vs the As on the day, and so recommended implementing a short BYD (1211 HK) H vs A share trade and from that point or even from the end of the day or the next, the Hs actually underperformed the As by 0.4%. 
See below the fold for this week's recommendations.











For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor as of 27 Nov 2020

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>A recent addition is the possible status of H/A-share companies in the monitor which are subject to the Trump Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. They are separated into three types (Possible Direct Qualifying Entity, Possible Indirect Qualifying Entity, and 20+%-owned by Qualifying Entity). They are color-coded as below.</p>
</div>
<section>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/235/original/image?1606106816" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173235"></figure>
</section>
<div>
<p>For more on the list of names, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trump-s-executive-order-on-chinese-military-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45259" rel="noopener">Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies</a>. </p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p>The first sector discussed is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads narrowed on average 2.7% for the week after narrowing 1.4% last week. Spreads are now just about flat over a four-week period. Every liquid H outperformed their A except for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> despite significant net selling of the Hs by Southbound accounts (selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> accounted for most of the net selling. The average H in the sector was up 10% on the week, which is remarkable. On average the liquid Hs in the cluster are up 27% in 4 weeks (none up less than 17%) and 35% since the start of the Golden Week holiday. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were heavy net sellers on the week and have now sold HK$3bn+ over four weeks, with most of the net selling in the sector coming from Southbound selling of BYD.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> still saw some selling but it did not dominate flows like last week. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week I recommended going long the H vs A on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and that spread gained 4.7% for the week. This week I recommend maintaining that trade and implementing a short BYD (1211 HK) H vs A share trade.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/244/original/Screenshot%202020-11-23%20at%2012.49.10%20PM.png?1606106963" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173244"></figure>
</section>
<p></p>
</div>
<p></p>
<div>
<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>
</div>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



A recent addition is the possible status of H/A-share companies in the monitor which are subject to the Trump Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. They are separated into three types (Possible Direct Qualifying Entity, Possible Indirect Qualifying Entity, and 20+%-owned by Qualifying Entity). They are color-coded as below.





For more on the list of names, please see Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. 



The first sector discussed is Consumer, where H/A spreads narrowed on average 2.7% for the week after narrowing 1.4% last week. Spreads are now just about flat over a four-week period. Every liquid H outperformed their A except for Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) despite significant net selling of the Hs by Southbound accounts (selling on BYD (1211 HK) accounted for most of the net selling. The average H in the sector was up 10% on the week, which is remarkable. On average the liquid Hs in the cluster are up 27% in 4 weeks (none up less than 17%) and 35% since the start of the Golden Week holiday. 


Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were heavy net sellers on the week and have now sold HK$3bn+ over four weeks, with most of the net selling in the sector coming from Southbound selling of BYD.  Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) still saw some selling but it did not dominate flows like last week. 



Last week I recommended going long the H vs A on Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and that spread gained 4.7% for the week. This week I recommend maintaining that trade and implementing a short BYD (1211 HK) H vs A share trade.










For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor as of 20 Nov 2020

China

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd manufactures pharmaceuticals. The Company develops and sells chemical and Chinese traditional medicines, healthcare products, and other products. Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding markets its products throughout China.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (601607 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (601607 CH)

SciClone (赛生药业) IPO Trading: Bifurcation of Demand

We were bearish with the deal and with the recent correction in the market, we think there is a chance that the deal goes under water post listing.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Strong Dispersion, Strong Alpha; Brokers Beat Banks

Great alpha last week as shorts beat by 48bp, longs beat by 46bp. Southbound saw one really big sell day, but on the week, buying continued apace...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

H/A spreads have been reasonably volatile over the CNY period, but again they net narrowed over two weeks. There are still several sectors where...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SciClone (赛生药业) IPO Trading: Bifurcation of Demand

We were bearish with the deal and with the recent correction in the market, we think there is a chance that the deal goes under water post listing.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Strong Dispersion, Strong Alpha; Brokers Beat Banks

Great alpha last week as shorts beat by 48bp, longs beat by 46bp. Southbound saw one really big sell day, but on the week, buying continued apace...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

H/A spreads have been reasonably volatile over the CNY period, but again they net narrowed over two weeks. There are still several sectors where...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor as of 27 Nov 2020

The weekly H/A Share Monitor and Trade Recommendations. Spreads narrower on the week. Last week's 39 trade recommendations gained 0.67% on average....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor as of 20 Nov 2020

The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor as of 27 Nov 2020