Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest aggregate and fund level stock holding metrics among active China A-Share investors.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)</a>  are the most widely owned stocks in the A-Share universe</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:654:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24562:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications (601328 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pudong-devel-bank-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:736:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)</a> mostly avoided by active A-Share Funds.</li>
</ul>


The latest aggregate and fund level stock holding metrics among active China A-Share investors.  

CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) and LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)  are the most widely owned stocks in the A-Share universe

Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CH) , Bank Of Communications (601328 CH) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH) mostly avoided by active A-Share Funds.


China A-Shares: Stock Positioning Chart Pack

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks</li>
<li>Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks</li>
<li>Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported</li>
</ul>


Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks
Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks
Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported


China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>SVB has special institutions in China and its business mode is Venture Lending. The closure of SVB could make it harder for Chinese startups to raise money from US investors/banks.</li>
<li>The scale of SVB is small, but it cannot be said that it has no impact on the fundamentals of China healthcare companies. Investors need to reassess the potential risks.</li>
<li>SVB’s woes would not be a serious blow to the US if government takes timely action. However, if BRICS currency is established, it would be real fatal for the dollar.</li>
</ul>


SVB has special institutions in China and its business mode is Venture Lending. The closure of SVB could make it harder for Chinese startups to raise money from US investors/banks.
The scale of SVB is small, but it cannot be said that it has no impact on the fundamentals of China healthcare companies. Investors need to reassess the potential risks.
SVB’s woes would not be a serious blow to the US if government takes timely action. However, if BRICS currency is established, it would be real fatal for the dollar.


“Sudden Death” of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - The Impact on China Healthcare

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> that will be implemented at the close on 9 June. The impact is pretty chunky on a few deletions.</li>
<li>Apart from the passive assets tracking the index, there are some liquid index futures and the impact on the stocks will be larger than just the headline numbers.</li>
<li>The adds underperformed the deletes in March and April but have come roaring back in May. Playing the trade via long/short pairs could provide better risk adjusted returns.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 June. The impact is pretty chunky on a few deletions.
Apart from the passive assets tracking the index, there are some liquid index futures and the impact on the stocks will be larger than just the headline numbers.
The adds underperformed the deletes in March and April but have come roaring back in May. Playing the trade via long/short pairs could provide better risk adjusted returns.


SSE50 Index Rebalance: Some Large Impact Changes

China

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company provides loans, deposits, accounts settlement, foreign exchange, and other services. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank provides its services to individuals, companies, and other groups.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

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Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

China A-Shares: Stock Positioning Chart Pack

How are China A-Share managers positioned? In this chart pack we look at the most widely held stocks, unloved stocks, the largest fund level stock...

Steven Holden

China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

China concerns rising, we look at banks' unseasoned loans, institutional ownership, and losses of loss making companies in China - soaring.

Daniel Tabbush

“Sudden Death” of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - The Impact on China Healthcare

SVB's "sudden death" would affect Chinese healthcare companies. Investors need to reassess the risks of related companies.We don't think SVB’s woes...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

SSE50 Index Rebalance: Some Large Impact Changes

There are 5 changes to the SSE50 Index in June that will have one-way turnover estimated at 3.95% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,187m....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)