Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) <a href="https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1333627&amp;SctArtId=243858&amp;from=CM&amp;nsl_code=LIME&amp;sourceObjectId=8645884&amp;sourceRevId=10&amp;fee_ind=N&amp;exp_date=20240616-20:32:13" target="_blank">outlined their view</a> of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) outlined their view of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as manageable in the short term, without drastic reform very soon there are likely to be serious repercussions.

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as manageable in the short term, without drastic reform very soon there are likely to be serious repercussions.

Systemic Risk from Corporate Debt in China

In the last two years two of China's most senior military bureaucrats have been sentenced to long prison sentences for selling promotions for personal gain. Did any senior officersne in the PLA really earn their rank?

In the last two years two of China's most senior military bureaucrats have been sentenced to long prison sentences for selling promotions for personal gain. Did any senior officersne in the PLA really earn their rank?

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

China Asset Risk Clear in Margin Data

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of...

Daniel Tabbush

Growing Corporate Debt in China

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that...

Bixmoor

Systemic Risk from Corporate Debt in China

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as...

Bixmoor

Implications of Chinese Military Graft

In the last two years two of China's most senior military bureaucrats have been sentenced to long prison sentences for selling promotions for...

Bixmoor

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning. Home to large...

Christopher Balding