Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FAI declined 3.8% in 2025 (the first full-year decline in 30+ years), and is down 1.6% in Jan-Apr'26. Retail sales barely grew 0.2%YoY in Apr'26, and property prices slumped nationwide. </li>
<li>Industrial output grew 6.1%YoY in Q1/2026 and 4.1%YoY in Apr'26, helped by exports growing 14.3%YoY (Jan-Apr'26); but imports grew faster (+23.4%YoY), shrinking the trade surplus. US$654bn net capital flight Apr'25-Mar'26. </li>
<li>Higher oil prices are temporarily countering deflation. Real GDP likely will decelerate to 3.6%YoY growth in Q2/2026, and stay below 4%YoY in H2/2026. Iran resolution would exacerbate China's deflation issues.  </li>
</ul>


FAI declined 3.8% in 2025 (the first full-year decline in 30+ years), and is down 1.6% in Jan-Apr'26. Retail sales barely grew 0.2%YoY in Apr'26, and property prices slumped nationwide. 
Industrial output grew 6.1%YoY in Q1/2026 and 4.1%YoY in Apr'26, helped by exports growing 14.3%YoY (Jan-Apr'26); but imports grew faster (+23.4%YoY), shrinking the trade surplus. US$654bn net capital flight Apr'25-Mar'26. 
Higher oil prices are temporarily countering deflation. Real GDP likely will decelerate to 3.6%YoY growth in Q2/2026, and stay below 4%YoY in H2/2026. Iran resolution would exacerbate China's deflation issues.  


China: Winning Internationally Despite Deepening Domestic Gloom

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>China has another breakthrough moment with DeepSeek changing standard AI architecture</li>
<li>The case for precious metals and commodities continues to build, but short-term caution is warranted.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
China has another breakthrough moment with DeepSeek changing standard AI architecture
The case for precious metals and commodities continues to build, but short-term caution is warranted.


Overview #46 - From GPUs to Geopolitics: Is China Winning the AI Race?

<ul>
<li>Sentiment, positioning and valuation provide a similar setup to January 2024</li>
<li>External macro events leading to a better fundamental environment for China</li>
<li>Foreign Investors' disappointment in minimal fiscal stimulus provides an asymmetric opportunity</li>
</ul>


Sentiment, positioning and valuation provide a similar setup to January 2024
External macro events leading to a better fundamental environment for China
Foreign Investors' disappointment in minimal fiscal stimulus provides an asymmetric opportunity


Just when I Thought I Was Out, They Pull Me Back In – Time for Another Tradeable Rally in the HSI?

<ul>
<li>A lack of institutional investor interest in Hong Kong is a positive for once as the market is less influenced by international flows</li>
<li>Investors are disappointed by the lack of short-term stimulus plans after the Third Plenum session</li>
<li>What to do after the 17,500 level breached on the Hang Seng index?</li>
</ul>


A lack of institutional investor interest in Hong Kong is a positive for once as the market is less influenced by international flows
Investors are disappointed by the lack of short-term stimulus plans after the Third Plenum session
What to do after the 17,500 level breached on the Hang Seng index?


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 3

<ul>
<li>In the short-term, meaningful policy reforms needed out of the Third Plenum</li>
<li>Chinese data continues to be lacklustre as expected while markets tread water</li>
<li>What can we expect from the Third Plenum to galvanise the next stage</li>
</ul>


In the short-term, meaningful policy reforms needed out of the Third Plenum
Chinese data continues to be lacklustre as expected while markets tread water
What can we expect from the Third Plenum to galvanise the next stage


The Hang Seng Index Is at a Critical Juncture

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

China: Winning Internationally Despite Deepening Domestic Gloom

FAI declined 1.6%YoY in Jan-Apr'26, after unprecedented 3.8%YoY decline in 2025. Net capital flight was US$654bn in Apr'25-Mar'26. RGDP growth...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #46 - From GPUs to Geopolitics: Is China Winning the AI Race?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of recent Chinese tech breakthroughs

Rikki Malik

Just when I Thought I Was Out, They Pull Me Back In – Time for Another Tradeable Rally in the HSI?

Bloomberg today -Chinese cities removing restrictions on non-Hukou purchases. "China Weighs Removing Major Homebuying Curbs to Boost...

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 3

Although the Hong Kong market benefits from lack of international interest, investors seek direction after Third Plenum disappointment and a...

Rikki Malik

The Hang Seng Index Is at a Critical Juncture

Third Plenum must deliver meaningful policy reforms to boost the Chinese consumer and market performance in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

China: Winning Internationally Despite Deepening Domestic Gloom

FAI declined 1.6%YoY in Jan-Apr'26, after unprecedented 3.8%YoY decline in 2025. Net capital flight was US$654bn in Apr'25-Mar'26. RGDP growth...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Overview #46 - From GPUs to Geopolitics: Is China Winning the AI Race?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of recent Chinese tech breakthroughs

Rikki Malik

Just when I Thought I Was Out, They Pull Me Back In – Time for Another Tradeable Rally in the HSI?

Bloomberg today -Chinese cities removing restrictions on non-Hukou purchases. "China Weighs Removing Major Homebuying Curbs to Boost...

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 3

​Although the Hong Kong market benefits from lack of international interest, investors seek direction after Third Plenum disappointment and a...

Rikki Malik

The Hang Seng Index Is at a Critical Juncture

​Third Plenum must deliver meaningful policy reforms to boost the Chinese consumer and market performance in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

Although the Hong Kong market benefits from lack of international interest, investors seek direction after Third Plenum disappointment and a...

Third Plenum must deliver meaningful policy reforms to boost the Chinese consumer and market performance in the short-term.