Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils demand likely to stay muted in face of slowing economic growth/manufacturing activity, combined with sufficient availability of supply.</li><li>Sliding crude oil prices add to reluctance to buy.</li><li>Supply shows signs of staying sufficient to meet demand even with heavy round of plant maintenance work that follows slump in domestic output in Feb 2025.</li></ul>

US base oils demand likely to stay muted in face of slowing economic growth/manufacturing activity, combined with sufficient availability of supply.Sliding crude oil prices add to reluctance to buy.Supply shows signs of staying sufficient to meet demand even with heavy round of plant maintenance work that follows slump in domestic output in Feb 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.</li><li>Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.</li><li>Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.</li>
<li>Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.</li>
<li>Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.</li>
</ul>


Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.


Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

<ul><li>Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.</li><li>Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.</li><li>Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.</li></ul>

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

<ul><li>US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.</li><li>US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.</li><li>Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.</li></ul>

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May

US base oils demand likely to stay muted in face of slowing economic growth/manufacturing activity, combined with sufficient availability of...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May

Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US...

Base Oil News

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Shell’s potential bid for BP could ignite Europe’s biggest energy merger in decades—driven by $70B in synergies, strategic alignment, and a deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier. Higher margins coincide...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices. US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock...

Base Oil News

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