Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we forecast 9 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.</li>
<li>Some of the potential adds will also have passive flows from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> trackers at the same time as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext Index</a> rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential adds have slipped a lot versus the potential deletes over the last few months as the National Team has tried to stabilise the market via ETF creations.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we forecast 9 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
Some of the potential adds will also have passive flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index trackers at the same time as the ChiNext Index rebalance.
The potential adds have slipped a lot versus the potential deletes over the last few months as the National Team has tried to stabilise the market via ETF creations.


ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (TINCI HK)

<ul>
<li>26H1 profit increase has a one-off nature. Once the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate drops below 80,000 yuan per ton, the profit elasticity will rapidly reverse. This is the biggest challenge.</li>
<li>Against the backdrop of the rapid elimination of tail-end production capacity in the lithium battery industry, the cathode material production lines lacking cost advantages may become a long-term burden.</li>
<li>Due to its larger size/stronger cyclical nature, the valuation of Tinci would be lower than that of<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-capchem-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11149:1" rel="noopener"> Capchem Technology</a>. Based on 2026 profit forecast, comfortable valuation could be 8-10x P/E</li>
</ul>


26H1 profit increase has a one-off nature. Once the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate drops below 80,000 yuan per ton, the profit elasticity will rapidly reverse. This is the biggest challenge.
Against the backdrop of the rapid elimination of tail-end production capacity in the lithium battery industry, the cathode material production lines lacking cost advantages may become a long-term burden.
Due to its larger size/stronger cyclical nature, the valuation of Tinci would be lower than that of Capchem Technology. Based on 2026 profit forecast, comfortable valuation could be 8-10x P/E


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-tinci-materials-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58788:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (TINCI HK)</a>, the world’s largest lithium-ion battery electrolyte supplier, is premarketing an H-share offering, which could raise about US$400–500 million.</li>
<li>It makes electrolytes and their core compositions (LiPF6, LiFSI, and additives), cathode materials, and battery adhesives for EV, energy storage (ESS), and consumer battery makers.</li>
<li>The investment case is cautious: Tinci is an integrated, low-cost leader in a growing market, but 1H26 earnings reflect a price spike, revenue is concentrated, and the FCF turned negative.</li>
</ul>



Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (TINCI HK), the world’s largest lithium-ion battery electrolyte supplier, is premarketing an H-share offering, which could raise about US$400–500 million.
It makes electrolytes and their core compositions (LiPF6, LiFSI, and additives), cathode materials, and battery adhesives for EV, energy storage (ESS), and consumer battery makers.
The investment case is cautious: Tinci is an integrated, low-cost leader in a growing market, but 1H26 earnings reflect a price spike, revenue is concentrated, and the FCF turned negative.


Tinci Materials H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material / Equity Capital Markets

Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material (YNEM HK)

<ul>
<li>Hunan Yuneng, a lithium iron phosphate cathode material supplier, is seeking an A+H listing. CSC and HSBC are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core business, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials for power batteries and energy storage batteries.</li>
<li>We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Hunan Yuneng, a lithium iron phosphate cathode material supplier, is seeking an A+H listing. CSC and HSBC are the joint sponsors.
We look at the company's core business, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials for power batteries and energy storage batteries.
We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.


Hunan Yuneng (湖南裕能) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: <strong>Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation</strong></p>

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

China

Shenzhen Capchem Technology Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells electronic chemicals.  The Company's products include electric capacitor chemicals and lithium ion battery chemicals.

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Shenzhen Capchem Technology (300037 CH)

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

There could be 9 changes for the Chinext and 5 changes for the Chinext50 index in Dec. The adds have drifted lower vs the deletes and there could...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Once lithium hexafluorophosphate price drops below RMB80,000/ton,Tinci's profit elasticity will rapidly reverse.Due to overcapacity, sustainability...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hunan Yuneng (湖南裕能) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Hunan Yuneng is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business and its industry, and give our early thoughts on valuation.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround

There could be 9 changes for the Chinext and 5 changes for the Chinext50 index in Dec. The adds have drifted lower vs the deletes and there could...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Once lithium hexafluorophosphate price drops below RMB80,000/ton,Tinci's profit elasticity will rapidly reverse.Due to overcapacity, sustainability...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tinci Materials H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Tinci Materials, the world’s largest lithium-ion battery electrolyte supplier, is premarketing an H-share offering, which could raise about...

Arun George

Hunan Yuneng (湖南裕能) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Hunan Yuneng is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business and its industry, and give our early thoughts on valuation.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Time for a Turnaround