Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering / Index Rebalance

Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering (600645 CH)

<ul>
<li>The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.</li>
</ul>


The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.</li>
<li>Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.</li>
<li>If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.
Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.
If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Scie / Index Rebalance

Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Scie (300049 CH)

<ul>
<li>CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 3 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-1.4x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.2-1x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>Trade performance has been horrible as the adds have moved sideways over the last two months and the deletes have skyrocketed - that could change in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
There are 3 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-1.4x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.2-1x ADV in the deletes.
Trade performance has been horrible as the adds have moved sideways over the last two months and the deletes have skyrocketed - that could change in the next two weeks.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Three Changes; Brutal Underperformance Could Reverse

<ul>
<li>The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will become effective after the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>We forecast 4 potential changes for the index in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.3bn (US$460m).</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes over the last few months as markets have rallied. That could change as positioning builds up ahead of announcement.</li>
</ul>


The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will become effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
We forecast 4 potential changes for the index in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.3bn (US$460m).
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes over the last few months as markets have rallied. That could change as positioning builds up ahead of announcement.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Needs Resuscitation

<ul>
<li>The review period ends on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>We forecast 4 potential changes for the index in December where there could be buying of 0.5-3x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have drifted lower versus the forecast deletes following the rally in the markets and the large ETF creations. That could reverse from now till review period end.</li>
</ul>


The review period ends on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
We forecast 4 potential changes for the index in December where there could be buying of 0.5-3x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds have drifted lower versus the forecast deletes following the rally in the markets and the large ETF creations. That could reverse from now till review period end.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

China

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes medical equipment. The Company produces life information supporting, in vitro diagnostic, and medical imaging equipment equipment. Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics also produces supporting reagents.

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

There could be 5 changes for the index in June. Passives need to buy 0.5-2x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the forecast...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Three Changes; Brutal Underperformance Could Reverse

There are 3 changes for the index in December. The adds have underperformed the deletes over the last 2 months. Going by historical performance,...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Needs Resuscitation

We forecast 4 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.3bn (US$460m). The adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

There could be 4 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in Dec. Trackers will need to trade between 0.5-3x ADV. The adds have underperformed as...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

There could be 5 changes for the index in June. Passives need to buy 0.5-2x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the forecast...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Three Changes; Brutal Underperformance Could Reverse

There are 3 changes for the index in December. The adds have underperformed the deletes over the last 2 months. Going by historical performance,...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Needs Resuscitation

We forecast 4 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.3bn (US$460m). The adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

There could be 4 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in Dec. Trackers will need to trade between 0.5-3x ADV. The adds have underperformed as...

Brian Freitas

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...