Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Sherwin-Williams Company's third-quarter 2025 results reflect both strengths and challenges in a turbulent demand environment.</li><li>Consolidated sales surpassed expectations with high single-digit growth, driven mainly by the strong performance of the Paint Stores and Consumer Brands groups.</li><li>However, the Performance Coatings Group faced difficulties, aligning with forecasts but not exceeding them.</li></ul>

The Sherwin-Williams Company's third-quarter 2025 results reflect both strengths and challenges in a turbulent demand environment.Consolidated sales surpassed expectations with high single-digit growth, driven mainly by the strong performance of the Paint Stores and Consumer Brands groups.However, the Performance Coatings Group faced difficulties, aligning with forecasts but not exceeding them.

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul>
<li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger</li>
<li>AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 </li>
<li>AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus </li>
</ul>


In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger
AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 
AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus 


<ul><li>Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst?</li><li>A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the investment case for AkzoNobel just weeks before shareholders vote on one of the sector's most consequential transactions.</li><li> While market attention remains focused on the proposed combination with Axalta, recent developments raise broader questions around value realisation, capital allocation and the board's strategic flexibility.</li></ul>

Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst?A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the investment case for AkzoNobel just weeks before shareholders vote on one of the sector's most consequential transactions. While market attention remains focused on the proposed combination with Axalta, recent developments raise broader questions around value realisation, capital allocation and the board's strategic flexibility.

AkzoNobel Nippon Paint’s proposed offer just added a fresh coat of value

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nippon's €7.5bn proposal values Decorative Paints at 10.8x NTM EBITDA, providing an external benchmark that highlights the relatively low valuation currently implied for Akzo's remaining coatings businesses</li>
<li>Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests the market attributes most of Akzo's conglomerate discount to Performance Coatings, not Decorative Paints, despite the former driving the Axalta synergy opportunity.</li>
<li>The proposal appears more likely to reinforce the strategic case for completing the Axalta merger before reviewing portfolio options than to disrupt the transaction itself.</li>
</ul>


Nippon's €7.5bn proposal values Decorative Paints at 10.8x NTM EBITDA, providing an external benchmark that highlights the relatively low valuation currently implied for Akzo's remaining coatings businesses
Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests the market attributes most of Akzo's conglomerate discount to Performance Coatings, not Decorative Paints, despite the former driving the Axalta synergy opportunity.
The proposal appears more likely to reinforce the strategic case for completing the Axalta merger before reviewing portfolio options than to disrupt the transaction itself.


Nippon Paint's €7.5bn Proposal Reprices the Akzo–Axalta Merger

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory</li>
<li>The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July</li>
<li>While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season</li>
<li>The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints</li>
<li>Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory
The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July
While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season
The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints
Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

United States

The Sherwin-Williams Company manufactures, distributes, and sells paints, coatings, and related products.  The Company's products are sold to professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers primarily in North and South America. Sherwin Williams also has additional operations in the Caribbean region, Europe and Asia.

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Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)

Sherwin-Williams’ Synergy Superpower

The Sherwin-Williams Company's third-quarter 2025 results reflect both strengths and challenges in a turbulent demand environment. Consolidated...

Baptista Research

What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26...

The IDEA!

AkzoNobel Nippon Paint’s proposed offer just added a fresh coat of value

Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst? A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the...

The IDEA!

Nippon Paint's €7.5bn Proposal Reprices the Akzo–Axalta Merger

Nippon Paint's €7.5bn proposal values Decorative Paints but also revalues the Akzo–Axalta merger, revealing where the market's valuation discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TMI Snapshot: Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

While the bond market continues to dismiss inflationary pressures, our text mining picked up a recent spike in mentions of supply constraints as...

Elan Gore

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