Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.</li>
<li>However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.</li>
<li>Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.
However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.
Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.</li>
<li>• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.</li>
<li>Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.


Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In December, I thought the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was going to be 2 ADDs 2 DELETEs and a double-capping for Fast Retailing. </li>
<li>Fast Retailing has fallen sharply vs Nikkei 225, and another stock has announced a large-multiple share split, making it a strong candidate for Nikkei 225 ADDITION in March 2025.</li>
<li>There is short-term path risk on all three ADDs, but they are definitely worth watching. Keep an eye out for separate insights on two of these names.</li>
</ul>


In December, I thought the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was going to be 2 ADDs 2 DELETEs and a double-capping for Fast Retailing. 
Fast Retailing has fallen sharply vs Nikkei 225, and another stock has announced a large-multiple share split, making it a strong candidate for Nikkei 225 ADDITION in March 2025.
There is short-term path risk on all three ADDs, but they are definitely worth watching. Keep an eye out for separate insights on two of these names.


[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company's own guidance.</li>
<li>Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company's own guidance.
Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.


High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

Nikkei 225 March 2025 Rebalance could easily be three ADDs and three DELETEs this time. Last time it could have been too, but they only went for...

Travis Lundy

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

​Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

​Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

Nikkei 225 March 2025 Rebalance could easily be three ADDs and three DELETEs this time. Last time it could have been too, but they only went for...

Travis Lundy

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

​Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...