Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. </li>
<li>Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.</li>
<li>There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.


SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.</li>
<li>Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.</li>
<li>We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.</li>
</ul>


Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.
Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.
We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.</li>
<li>The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.
The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.


Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.</li>
<li>However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.</li>
<li>Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.
However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.
Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company's own guidance.</li>
<li>Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company's own guidance.
Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.


High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%

Shift's impressive 95% increase in operating profit exceeded expectations, with the stock now up 40% and poised for continued 20% annual growth...

Michael Allen

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%

​Shift's impressive 95% increase in operating profit exceeded expectations, with the stock now up 40% and poised for continued 20% annual growth...

Michael Allen

Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

​Market overreacted to Shift's earnings with 10% drop. 3Q is an off-season for Shift, however, earnings were decent. Share price has started to...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

​Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

​Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Shift's impressive 95% increase in operating profit exceeded expectations, with the stock now up 40% and poised for continued 20% annual growth...

Market overreacted to Shift's earnings with 10% drop. 3Q is an off-season for Shift, however, earnings were decent. Share price has started to...

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...