Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 For the week: Nikkei: -1.1%, TPX -0.8%, JPY 149.70 (-1.48¥), Gold +8.8%, Oil: -3.4%, BTC: -7.2%</li>
<li>A week remains a lifetime in financial markets. The exuberance that lifted Japanese equities to record highs only last week has given way to a more cautious tone</li>
<li>
Sector wise, Retail outperformed, suggesting defensive positioning, but also reflecting strong underlying business performance. Aeon, Ryohin and Fast all saw major gains. </li>
</ul>



 For the week: Nikkei: -1.1%, TPX -0.8%, JPY 149.70 (-1.48¥), Gold +8.8%, Oil: -3.4%, BTC: -7.2%
A week remains a lifetime in financial markets. The exuberance that lifted Japanese equities to record highs only last week has given way to a more cautious tone

Sector wise, Retail outperformed, suggesting defensive positioning, but also reflecting strong underlying business performance. Aeon, Ryohin and Fast all saw major gains. 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Global Jitters Spread

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> outperforms.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> bubble has finally popped. Now what?</li>
</ul>


Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.

Naspers (NPN SJ)'s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>The turnaround basket outperformed the Topix benchmark by 40% in the past 12 months, with only three stocks underperforming.</li>
<li>Fundamental research added value to the simple one-factor model, as seen with top performers like Shift and Rohm.</li>
<li>The unusual market conditions last year favored turnarounds, but future performance is expected to return to normal levels.</li>
</ul>


The turnaround basket outperformed the Topix benchmark by 40% in the past 12 months, with only three stocks underperforming.
Fundamental research added value to the simple one-factor model, as seen with top performers like Shift and Rohm.
The unusual market conditions last year favored turnarounds, but future performance is expected to return to normal levels.


Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed. </li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed. 


The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shift Inc (3697 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Global Jitters Spread

Japanese markets experienced a shift from exuberance to caution in just one week, with Retail sector outperforming and showing strong business...

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Michael Allen

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year (every half year) it is the same trade. Dividend reinvestment for passive funds. This September it "should" be ¥2trln+ but it will...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Global Jitters Spread

​Japanese markets experienced a shift from exuberance to caution in just one week, with Retail sector outperforming and showing strong business...

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

​Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Michael Allen

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year (every half year) it is the same trade. Dividend reinvestment for passive funds. This September it "should" be ¥2trln+ but it will...

Travis Lundy

Japanese markets experienced a shift from exuberance to caution in just one week, with Retail sector outperforming and showing strong business...

Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....