Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HK and China RE stocks on average rallied 20% and 174% respectively, since the US started rate cut and China’s huge economic stimulus</li>
<li>Based on trading flows, positioning, and valuation, it is not too late to chase the rally.  The timing, the language and the form of Chinese policy announcements are un-precedented</li>
<li>Don’t fight against Beijing!  We analyze upcoming catalysts and risks.  Next Tuesday is a key time to watch due to potential policy window and trading resumption of Chinese equities. </li>
</ul>


HK and China RE stocks on average rallied 20% and 174% respectively, since the US started rate cut and China’s huge economic stimulus
Based on trading flows, positioning, and valuation, it is not too late to chase the rally.  The timing, the language and the form of Chinese policy announcements are un-precedented
Don’t fight against Beijing!  We analyze upcoming catalysts and risks.  Next Tuesday is a key time to watch due to potential policy window and trading resumption of Chinese equities. 


What to Do with Hong Kong and China Property Stocks After a Crazy Week? Upcoming Catalysts and Risks

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Sep 21-26, 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

<ul>
<li>Today news reported that China has announced policy where mortgage holders can negotiate with banks on their rates.  We think this is a strong boost to the sentiment</li>
<li>Despite today sector is up 3-11%, valuation is at all time low and we think the risk reward profile is attractive, especially macro environment is turning more favorable</li>
<li>We think there can be potential upside of 40-200% depending on stock selection.  We also identify 5 factor that can drive a sector rerating</li>
</ul>


Today news reported that China has announced policy where mortgage holders can negotiate with banks on their rates.  We think this is a strong boost to the sentiment
Despite today sector is up 3-11%, valuation is at all time low and we think the risk reward profile is attractive, especially macro environment is turning more favorable
We think there can be potential upside of 40-200% depending on stock selection.  We also identify 5 factor that can drive a sector rerating


What Is the Upside if Buy China RE Stocks? Valuation Is All-Time Low, 5 Factors to Drive Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

Hong Kong

Shimao Group is a diversified real estate development company specializing in property development, property investment, and hotel operations across the People's Republic of China. The company develops large-scale residential projects, hotels, and commercial buildings, offering services such as property sales, hotel management, and commercial property management. It is headquartered in Hong Kong and was incorporated in 2001.

Price Gauge
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Shimao Group (813 HK)

What to Do with Hong Kong and China Property Stocks After a Crazy Week? Upcoming Catalysts and Risks

After a crazy week, we think it is not too late to chase the rally, based on trading flows, investor's positioning and valuation. The timing,...

Jacob Cheng

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Sep 21-26, 2024

This note is a weekly (Sep 20-26, 2024; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) shared their estimate of the scale of the issue with the 'sold-not...

Robert Ciemniak

What Is the Upside if Buy China RE Stocks? Valuation Is All-Time Low, 5 Factors to Drive Re-Rating

We think there can be 40-200% potential upside if we buy China RE stocks now. Valuation is at all time low, there is government policy support,...

Jacob Cheng

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress,...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)