Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The sharp decline in the Korean stock market this year has led to more Korean companies conducting share buybacks. </li>
<li>As of 23 October, the number of companies in Korea seeking share buybacks in Korea increased by 41% YoY with 308 companies announcing share buyback programs.</li>
<li>In the past month, some of the larger market cap companies including Ecopro BM and SKC that have announced share buybacks have significantly outperformed the market.</li>
</ul>


The sharp decline in the Korean stock market this year has led to more Korean companies conducting share buybacks. 
As of 23 October, the number of companies in Korea seeking share buybacks in Korea increased by 41% YoY with 308 companies announcing share buyback programs.
In the past month, some of the larger market cap companies including Ecopro BM and SKC that have announced share buybacks have significantly outperformed the market.


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: October 2022

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Six of the seven South Korean banks screen favourably on valuation versus returns metrics to June 2022; we like KB Financial, whilst Woori Financial is a wait and see story</li>
<li>KB has undemanding valuations, and one of the lowest PEG ratios; it delivers steady pre-provision returns, has sound core capital ratio of close to 13% and healthy credit quality ratios</li>
<li>Woori Financial and potentially KakaoBank are two names to review post 3Q22 results, with Woori and KakaoBank having seen their 2Q22 cost of risk rise sharply; we seek positive catalysts</li>
</ul>


Six of the seven South Korean banks screen favourably on valuation versus returns metrics to June 2022; we like KB Financial, whilst Woori Financial is a wait and see story
KB has undemanding valuations, and one of the lowest PEG ratios; it delivers steady pre-provision returns, has sound core capital ratio of close to 13% and healthy credit quality ratios
Woori Financial and potentially KakaoBank are two names to review post 3Q22 results, with Woori and KakaoBank having seen their 2Q22 cost of risk rise sharply; we seek positive catalysts


South Korean Banks Screener; KB Financial Is Our Core Pick

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Woori Financial Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Woori is the fastest growing major bank in Korea, not positive into a downturn</li>
<li>Credit metrics look poor in granular data on loans and in credit costs</li>
<li>Capital levels are relatively low, while funding mix is worsening</li>
</ul>


Woori is the fastest growing major bank in Korea, not positive into a downturn
Credit metrics look poor in granular data on loans and in credit costs
Capital levels are relatively low, while funding mix is worsening


Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>There was a substantial increase in the AUM even in the current market condition. More funds must have sought blue chip stocks as relatively safe assets in this volatile market.</li>
<li>Celltrion and LG Energy Solution will likely replace KB Financial and Shinhan Financial. On the other hand, POSCO is out of the race even with a +5%p float rate change.</li>
<li>LG Energy also has an up-weight event of the KOSPI 200. Since these passive flow events have an interval of only one day, we expect a fairly concentrated passive impact.</li>
</ul>


There was a substantial increase in the AUM even in the current market condition. More funds must have sought blue chip stocks as relatively safe assets in this volatile market.
Celltrion and LG Energy Solution will likely replace KB Financial and Shinhan Financial. On the other hand, POSCO is out of the race even with a +5%p float rate change.
LG Energy also has an up-weight event of the KOSPI 200. Since these passive flow events have an interval of only one day, we expect a fairly concentrated passive impact.


TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging

<ul>
<li>Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.</li>
<li>Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.</li>
<li>A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.</li>
</ul>


Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.


3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

South Korea

Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.  The company's main businesses include banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

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Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)

South Korean Banks Screener; KB Financial Is Our Core Pick

Of the seven South Korean banks, we like KB Financial for its attractive valuations, and low PEG ratio; it delivers steady pre-provision returns,...

Victor Galliano

Woori - Plenty to Worry About

Woori is the fastest growing back in recent years, so there is greater risk of unseasoned loans turning bad. The bank is less well provisioned, and...

Daniel Tabbush

TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging

This post investigates the current rebalancing status of the TIGER Top 10 ETF, the largest AUM sector ETF in Korea, and previews the resulting...

Sanghyun Park

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

This post provides the market consensus estimates for the 3Q dividends of those with single-stock futures in Korea and looks into the cash-and...

Sanghyun Park

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Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: October 2022

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in the past...

Douglas Kim

South Korean Banks Screener; KB Financial Is Our Core Pick

Of the seven South Korean banks, we like KB Financial for its attractive valuations, and low PEG ratio; it delivers steady pre-provision returns,...

Victor Galliano

Woori - Plenty to Worry About

Woori is the fastest growing back in recent years, so there is greater risk of unseasoned loans turning bad. The bank is less well provisioned, and...

Daniel Tabbush

TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging

This post investigates the current rebalancing status of the TIGER Top 10 ETF, the largest AUM sector ETF in Korea, and previews the resulting...

Sanghyun Park

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

This post provides the market consensus estimates for the 3Q dividends of those with single-stock futures in Korea and looks into the cash-and...

Sanghyun Park