Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of the year. Please make no mistake, seasonality exists in Japan. We calculated the returns from September 1st to December 31st going back to 1996.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7245" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> top the list with an 82% success rate and an average return of 13%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17620" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> is next also with an 82% success rate and a median return of 13%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a> also…

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of the year. Please make no mistake, seasonality exists in Japan. We calculated the returns from September 1st to December 31st going back to 1996.  Nidec Corp (6594 JP) top the list with an 82% success rate and an average return of 13%. JSR Corp (4185 JP) is next also with an 82% success rate and a median return of 13%. Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP) also…

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> revenue was up 14% YoY to ¥453.3B in FY26 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 34% YoY to ¥337.9B).</li>
<li>Orgovyx (revenue jumped 87% YoY to ¥155B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 46% to ¥96B) improved market share.</li>
<li>Company expects the FY27 revenue to be ¥540B, up 19% YoY. Core operating profit has been guided to be at ¥91B (down 14% YoY).</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revenue was up 14% YoY to ¥453.3B in FY26 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 34% YoY to ¥337.9B).
Orgovyx (revenue jumped 87% YoY to ¥155B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 46% to ¥96B) improved market share.
Company expects the FY27 revenue to be ¥540B, up 19% YoY. Core operating profit has been guided to be at ¥91B (down 14% YoY).


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): America Drives FY26, To Be Continued in FY27, Enzomenib in Pivotal Phase

Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP)</a> - May 09, 2018<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>FY16A</td>
<td>FY17E Preview</td>
<td>% ∆ y-o-y</td>
<td>FY17 CE*</td>
<td>% ∆ y-o-y</td>
<td>Notes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sales  (¥b)</td>
<td>338.9</td>
<td>347.0</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>345.0</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>HIV franchise royalty to drive topline</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GPM (%)</td>
<td>77.0%</td>
<td>78.7%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>77.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>Earnings in the form of royalty improve gross margins</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core EBIT (¥b)</td>
<td>111.5</td>
<td>117.6</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reported EBIT</td>
<td>108.2</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>113.5</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core EPS** (¥)</td>
<td>263.4</td>
<td>307.8</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reported EPS </td>
<td>255.9</td>
<td>297.8</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
<td>317.0</td>
<td>23.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>FY18e Potential Guidance<ul><li>HIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its products…</li></ul>

Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018

FY16A
FY17E   Preview
% ∆  y-o-y
FY17  CE*
% ∆  y-o-y
Notes


Sales  (¥b)
338.9
347.0
2.4%
345.0
1.8%
HIV franchise royalty to drive topline


GPM (%)
77.0%
78.7%
2.2%
77.8%
1.0%
Earnings in the form of royalty improve gross margins


Core EBIT (¥b)
111.5
117.6
5.5%
N.A.
 


Reported EBIT
108.2
114.3
5.7%
113.5
4.9%


Core EPS** (¥)
263.4
307.8
16.9%
N.A.
 


Reported EPS 
255.9
297.8
16.4%
317.0
23.9%

FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its products…

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Japan

Shionogi & Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription and over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

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Shionogi & (4507 JT)

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term...

Vermilion Research

Best Japanese Performers in the Fall....

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of...

Custom Products Group

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): America Drives FY26, To Be Continued in FY27, Enzomenib in Pivotal Phase

Sumitomo Pharma sees strong revenue growth in FY26 driven by North America. Momentum to continue in FY27. Profits to see some downside on R&D cost...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term...

Vermilion Research

Best Japanese Performers in the Fall....

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of...

Custom Products Group

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): America Drives FY26, To Be Continued in FY27, Enzomenib in Pivotal Phase

​Sumitomo Pharma sees strong revenue growth in FY26 driven by North America. Momentum to continue in FY27. Profits to see some downside on R&D cost...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Sumitomo Pharma sees strong revenue growth in FY26 driven by North America. Momentum to continue in FY27. Profits to see some downside on R&D cost...