Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.</li>
<li>2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).</li>
<li>In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  </li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.
2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).
In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  


Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  </li>
<li>Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).</li>
<li>Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY24, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  
Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).
Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshin-seifun-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:640:1" rel="noopener">Nisshin Seifun Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp</a> have all underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> over the last 3-4 months.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Nisshin Seifun Group, Oji Holdings, Nippon Shinyaku, CyberAgent Inc, NGK Insulators, Lixil Group and Sharp Corp have all underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last 3-4 months.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> recorded 13% YoY revenue growth to ¥120B in Q1FY24, driven by 12% YoY growth in product revenue. Royalty revenue grew 14% YoY.</li>
<li>Revenue from Opdivo grew 11% YoY to ¥37.8B, due to expanded use in treatments for gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, urothelial carcinoma, etc. Revenue from Forxiga grew 34% YoY to ¥17.5B.</li>
<li>For FY24, Ono continues to expect revenue growth of 6% to ¥475B. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 8% and 2% to ¥153B and ¥115B, respectively, for FY24.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) recorded 13% YoY revenue growth to ¥120B in Q1FY24, driven by 12% YoY growth in product revenue. Royalty revenue grew 14% YoY.
Revenue from Opdivo grew 11% YoY to ¥37.8B, due to expanded use in treatments for gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, urothelial carcinoma, etc. Revenue from Forxiga grew 34% YoY to ¥17.5B.
For FY24, Ono continues to expect revenue growth of 6% to ¥475B. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 8% and 2% to ¥153B and ¥115B, respectively, for FY24.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Mixed Q1 Result; Guidance Reiterated; Buyback Plan Announced

Japan

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

In 1H23, revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with 1H22. 2023 guidance calls for a 12% YoY revenue...

Tina Banerjee