Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">There has been growing awareness of the business case for inclusion and diversity (I&amp;D) in the workplace. In Japan, Prime Minister Suga has pledged continued government support for corporate governance reform and he would like to see more </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">women</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none"> and foreigners in key positions. While many companies cite I&amp;D as a source of competitive advantage and a key enabler of growth, few academic studies have been able to prove a direct link between I&amp;D and financial performance. Our analysis on Japan’s larger companies suggests the following:</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></div><div><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;" role="list" start="1"><li role="listitem" data-leveltext="%1." data-font="Calibri" data-listid="1" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="1" data-aria-level="1"><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">Most Japanese companies have very low levels of diversity. Although the participation of women on the boards of Japanese companies is expanding, those with higher levels of diversity are yet to see any improvement in financial metrics or stock performance. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></li></ol></div><div><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;" role="list" start="2"><li role="listitem" data-leveltext="%1." data-font="Calibri" data-listid="1" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="2" data-aria-level="1"><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">Our broad composite index of board entrenchment also bears little correlation with key metrics. However, boards that are younger on average do appear to be more effective, and are correlated with a broad range of operating metrics. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></li></ol></div>

There has been growing awareness of the business case for inclusion and diversity (I&amp;D) in the workplace. In Japan, Prime Minister Suga has pledged continued government support for corporate governance reform and he would like to see more women and foreigners in key positions. While many companies cite I&amp;D as a source of competitive advantage and a key enabler of growth, few academic studies have been able to prove a direct link between I&amp;D and financial performance. Our analysis on Japan’s larger companies suggests the following: Most Japanese companies have very low levels of diversity. Although the participation of women on the boards of Japanese companies is expanding, those with higher levels of diversity are yet to see any improvement in financial metrics or stock performance.  Our broad composite index of board entrenchment also bears little correlation with key metrics. However, boards that are younger on average do appear to be more effective, and are correlated with a broad range of operating metrics.  

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/683/original/2020-12-01_09-00-54.png?1606780869" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175683"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics </div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS</strong> - Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUND BUYS </strong>- High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH SELLS</strong> - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul>
<p>The Ex-Growth Sells quadrant offers more fertile ground for shorting as the decline in earnings momentum is already clear, however, in many cases, the market is reluctant to sell the 'darlings' of the past. Examples of profitable Ex-Growth Sells from 2020 are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyudenko-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5414:1" rel="noopener">Kyudenko(1959 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a>. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/693/original/2020-12-01_10-13-31.png?1606785235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175693"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/699/original/2020-12-01_10-22-36.png?1606785767" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175699"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/700/original/2020-12-01_10-23-41.png?1606785833" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175700"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EX-GROWTH SELLS</a></strong> - In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series. The first three Insights can be found at - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45688" rel="noopener">Contrarian Buys,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-sells" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45725" rel="noopener">Contrarian Sells</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-turnaround-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45829" rel="noopener">Turnaround Buys</a>.   </p></section>
</div>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-


CONTRARIAN BUYS - Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUND BUYS - High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH SELLS - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores

The Ex-Growth Sells quadrant offers more fertile ground for shorting as the decline in earnings momentum is already clear, however, in many cases, the market is reluctant to sell the 'darlings' of the past. Examples of profitable Ex-Growth Sells from 2020 are Kyudenko(1959 JP), Ariake Japan (2815 JP), and Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP). 
EX-GROWTH SELLS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series. The first three Insights can be found at - Contrarian Buys, Contrarian Sells, and Turnaround Buys.   


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Ex-Growth Sells

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Tuesday's best and worst pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio (4974 JP)</a> and staffing agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol (2181 JP)</a>.  </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/640/original/2020-11-11_05-58-20.png?1605041913" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170640"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/641/original/2020-11-11_06-01-01.png?1605042074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170641"></figure></section><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>244 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 6% Neutral / 45% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.3% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.1 ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>111 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 54% Positive / 7% Neutral / 39% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 64% Positive / 0% Neutral / 36% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Tuesday's best and worst pairing is Takara Bio (4974 JP) and staffing agency Persol (2181 JP).  
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

244 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 49% Positive / 6% Neutral / 45% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.3% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1 ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%


111 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 54% Positive / 7% Neutral / 39% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 64% Positive / 0% Neutral / 36% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1.7 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 6th AUGUST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a>, respectively - the latter as flagged in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shiseido-4911-jp-downward-revision-imminent" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41874" rel="noopener">Downward Revision Imminent</a>  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/081/original/2020-08-07_05-30-09.png?1596745840" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151081"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/082/original/2020-08-07_05-31-27.png?1596745907" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151082"></figure><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics<hr>
</div><p></p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong> 64%</strong> of quarterly results,  <strong>78%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 79%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and <strong>28%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>332 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score: </strong>29% Positive / 7% Neutral / 64% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.0 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-9.7% Quarter YoY / -3.5% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.7 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 28%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>121 Annual • 76 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 17% Positive / 6% Neutral / 78% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 17% Positive / 4% Neutral / 79% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -11.2 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 6th AUGUST •The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Square Enix (9684 JP) and Shiseido (4911 JP), respectively - the latter as flagged in Downward Revision Imminent  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATSPERCENTAGES - 64% of quarterly results,  78% of annual forecasts/revisions and 79% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 28% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.332 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 29% Positive / 7% Neutral / 64% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.0 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -3.5% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.7 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 28%
121 Annual • 76 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 6% Neutral / 78% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 17% Positive / 4% Neutral / 79% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.2 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th August - Nintendo, Yamada Denki, Terumo, Toyota, Shiseido

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar ESG performance can do a lot of  good for a stock price. Rather, it's that the Social pillar stuff is more ethereal, harder to wrap one's head around. And, let's face it, the Social ESG pillar is a little more rosewater than crude oil.</p><p>It is amazing how a global pandemic changes things. Whether it is ESG's social or Corporate Social Responsibility's (CSR) "social," socially-responsibility – as well as social irresponsibility or inaction – by corporations are front-and-center. In prior reports I assessed corporate coronavirus responses from an ESG perspective. In doing so, I something became increasingly (and painfully) obvious:</p><p>Company responses are <em>very</em> diverse (as they should be), making comparative analysis difficult.</p><p>For society, comparisons aren't necessarily relevant. A patient receiving better medical care due to a generous contribution from Company A probably doesn't care that Company B – same sector but the other side of the world – gave a larger contribution to its local hospital. For investors, however, comparisons kind of matter. After all, what's the value of a stand-alone P/E multiple?</p><p>Rather than go insane trying to standardise and normalise everything – e.g., the economic value of donated masks or cost of retrofitting manufacturing lines to produce ventilators – I decided to look at coronavirus-related corporate philanthropy as a comparative metric. It is universal, quantifiable, and decidedly much easier to measure and value than, say, vats of hand sanitiser.</p><p>This takes a data-driven look at coronavirus-related corporate social responsibility and specifically  philanthropy by listed companies in Asia Pacific countries. APAC first because Asian companies are doing a lot of giving, and nearly all of that inspirational cross-border humanitarian aid – including to the U.S., despite a certain orange-haired xenophobe in a white house.</p>

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar ESG performance can do a lot of  good for a stock price. Rather, it's that the Social pillar stuff is more ethereal, harder to wrap one's head around. And, let's face it, the Social ESG pillar is a little more rosewater than crude oil.It is amazing how a global pandemic changes things. Whether it is ESG's social or Corporate Social Responsibility's (CSR) "social," socially-responsibility – as well as social irresponsibility or inaction – by corporations are front-and-center. In prior reports I assessed corporate coronavirus responses from an ESG perspective. In doing so, I something became increasingly (and painfully) obvious:Company responses are very diverse (as they should be), making comparative analysis difficult.For society, comparisons aren't necessarily relevant. A patient receiving better medical care due to a generous contribution from Company A probably doesn't care that Company B – same sector but the other side of the world – gave a larger contribution to its local hospital. For investors, however, comparisons kind of matter. After all, what's the value of a stand-alone P/E multiple?Rather than go insane trying to standardise and normalise everything – e.g., the economic value of donated masks or cost of retrofitting manufacturing lines to produce ventilators – I decided to look at coronavirus-related corporate philanthropy as a comparative metric. It is universal, quantifiable, and decidedly much easier to measure and value than, say, vats of hand sanitiser.This takes a data-driven look at coronavirus-related corporate social responsibility and specifically  philanthropy by listed companies in Asia Pacific countries. APAC first because Asian companies are doing a lot of giving, and nearly all of that inspirational cross-border humanitarian aid – including to the U.S., despite a certain orange-haired xenophobe in a white house.

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Japan Governance - Diversity Matters

Japanese companies have very low levels of board diversity. Participation by women is too low to see any tangible results yet, but more youthful...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Ex-Growth Sells

EX-GROWTH SELLS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pairing is Takara Bio (4974 JP) and staffing agency Persol (2181 JP)......................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th August - Nintendo, Yamada Denki, Terumo, Toyota, Shiseido

•BEST & WORST 6th AUGUST •The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Square Enix (9684 JP) and Shiseido (4911...

Campbell Gunn

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar...

Kyle Rudden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Governance - Diversity Matters

Japanese companies have very low levels of board diversity. Participation by women is too low to see any tangible results yet, but more youthful...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Ex-Growth Sells

EX-GROWTH SELLS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current Ex-Growth Sells. The is the last Insight in this four-part mini-series.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pairing is Takara Bio (4974 JP) and staffing agency Persol (2181 JP)......................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th August - Nintendo, Yamada Denki, Terumo, Toyota, Shiseido

•BEST & WORST 6th AUGUST •The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Square Enix (9684 JP) and Shiseido (4911...

Campbell Gunn

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar...

Kyle Rudden

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/10 - Shiseido, FUJIFILM, Otsuka, Persol