IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.</li>
<li>The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror's parent entity.</li>
<li>The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.</li>
</ul>



Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror's parent entity.
The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.


Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It was reported that the Chinese government advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, which is likely to positively benefit the Korea in-bound tourism related stocks.</li>
<li>If the political tensions between China and Japan are not quickly resolved but continues to last, this would have further negative impact on the Japanese consumer/tourism/leisure related companies. </li>
<li>On the flip side, this could have a positive impact on the Korean consumer/tourism/leisure related companies such as Lotte Tour Development, Hotel Shilla, and Paradise. </li>
</ul>


It was reported that the Chinese government advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, which is likely to positively benefit the Korea in-bound tourism related stocks.
If the political tensions between China and Japan are not quickly resolved but continues to last, this would have further negative impact on the Japanese consumer/tourism/leisure related companies. 
On the flip side, this could have a positive impact on the Korean consumer/tourism/leisure related companies such as Lotte Tour Development, Hotel Shilla, and Paradise. 


China Advices Its Citizens to Refrain from Traveling to Japan - Beneficial Impact on Korea Tourism

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> has proposed countermeasures in response to Murakami’s 18.87% voting stake and to ostensibly secure time for an alternative, viable (higher) offer.</li>
<li>The read-across from the proposal is that CVC’s offer at current terms will fail, CVC is unwilling to match Murakami/Hibiki’s expectations, and there could be genuine interest from third-party bidders. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, countermeasures are unnecessary as the share price and presence of activists provide the time needed for the Board’s purported aim to secure a higher offer.       </li>
</ul>



Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has proposed countermeasures in response to Murakami’s 18.87% voting stake and to ostensibly secure time for an alternative, viable (higher) offer.
The read-across from the proposal is that CVC’s offer at current terms will fail, CVC is unwilling to match Murakami/Hibiki’s expectations, and there could be genuine interest from third-party bidders. 
Nevertheless, countermeasures are unnecessary as the share price and presence of activists provide the time needed for the Board’s purported aim to secure a higher offer.       


Mandom (4917 JP): Countermeasures Ostensibly to Buy Time for a Higher Offer

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.</li>
<li>China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.</li>
<li>Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.</li>
</ul>


Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.
China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.
Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.


Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Equity Capital Markets

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the investment thesis in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-420a-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204929" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Price Gauge
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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its...

Arun George

China Advices Its Citizens to Refrain from Traveling to Japan - Beneficial Impact on Korea Tourism

Chinese government advising against travel to Japan could boost Korean tourism stocks, while prolonged tensions could harm Japanese companies.

Douglas Kim

Mandom (4917 JP): Countermeasures Ostensibly to Buy Time for a Higher Offer

The method is regrettable, but the purported intention to secure time for a higher offer is acceptable. The current offer terms are untenable, and...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Tech and AI lower in the US including Oracle despite releasing positive long term guidance. May see further upside for Shiseido and Kose if...

Andrew Jackson

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its...

Arun George

China Advices Its Citizens to Refrain from Traveling to Japan - Beneficial Impact on Korea Tourism

​Chinese government advising against travel to Japan could boost Korean tourism stocks, while prolonged tensions could harm Japanese companies.

Douglas Kim

Mandom (4917 JP): Countermeasures Ostensibly to Buy Time for a Higher Offer

The method is regrettable, but the purported intention to secure time for a higher offer is acceptable. The current offer terms are untenable, and...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Tech and AI lower in the US including Oracle despite releasing positive long term guidance. May see further upside for Shiseido and Kose if...

Andrew Jackson

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Chinese government advising against travel to Japan could boost Korean tourism stocks, while prolonged tensions could harm Japanese companies.