TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

We are more bullish on the deal logic than initial reaction from the market and sell-side and would buy Paypal on this pullback.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

We are more bullish on the deal logic than initial reaction from the market and sell-side and would buy Paypal on this pullback.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siteminder-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34688:1" rel="noopener">SiteMinder (1909429D AU)</a> is looking to raise about US$467m in its Australia IPO.SiteMinder is an open hotel commerce platform that empowers hotels and accommodation providers (customers) to sell, market, manage and grow their business. It is essentially Shopify for hotel and accommodation providers. The company demonstrated its resilience during COVID-19 which is a testament of its value to its customers.In this note, we will look at the company’s business model, fundamentals, deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.

SiteMinder (1909429D AU) is looking to raise about US$467m in its Australia IPO.SiteMinder is an open hotel commerce platform that empowers hotels and accommodation providers (customers) to sell, market, manage and grow their business. It is essentially Shopify for hotel and accommodation providers. The company demonstrated its resilience during COVID-19 which is a testament of its value to its customers.In this note, we will look at the company’s business model, fundamentals, deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.

SiteMinder IPO - An Impressive Performance During Pandemic

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigcommerce-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29196:1" rel="noopener">BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US)</a> , provider of e-commerce scalable SaaS platform for B2B and B2C segments, went public on August 5, 2020. Company has raised ~$170 million of net proceeds from an IPO and the IPO price was $24.00 per share. Currently, BigCommerce stock is trading at about $60.00 per share and IPO investors are still up ~150%. BigCommerce has raised ~$228 million in funding over 6 rounds and their last $64 million Series F round was led by Goldman Sachs at a $450 million pre-money valuation keeping in mind IPO valuation was ~$1.8 billion and now market cap of BigCommerce reached ~$4.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. In our insight we will provide outlook for CY’22 and specify reasons why we have negative view on BigCommerce stock.

BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US) , provider of e-commerce scalable SaaS platform for B2B and B2C segments, went public on August 5, 2020. Company has raised ~$170 million of net proceeds from an IPO and the IPO price was $24.00 per share. Currently, BigCommerce stock is trading at about $60.00 per share and IPO investors are still up ~150%. BigCommerce has raised ~$228 million in funding over 6 rounds and their last $64 million Series F round was led by Goldman Sachs at a $450 million pre-money valuation keeping in mind IPO valuation was ~$1.8 billion and now market cap of BigCommerce reached ~$4.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. In our insight we will provide outlook for CY’22 and specify reasons why we have negative view on BigCommerce stock.   

BigCommerce Insiders Dumped ~$480 Million Worth of Shares During One Year After IPO

Equity Analyst, Investi Analyst

Investi Analyst

Equity Analyst

Investment Entrepreneur / Equity Analyst.

<ul><li>The story and thesis behind Affirm has drastically changed with the announcement of two new deals with the world's largest companies.</li><li>Amazon and Apple could easily have built an in-house BNPL; instead, they chose to partner with Affirm.</li><li>What is Affirm's Secret Sauce and Moat? This article will discuss their competitive advantage over Klarna and Afterpay.</li><li>This article surmises to answer the question behind why these Mega-Tech companies want Affirm as well as the key risks to monitor.</li><li>The math has completely changed for Affirm's future trajectory.</li></ul>

The story and thesis behind Affirm has drastically changed with the announcement of two new deals with the world's largest companies.Amazon and Apple could easily have built an in-house BNPL; instead, they chose to partner with Affirm.What is Affirm's Secret Sauce and Moat? This article will discuss their competitive advantage over Klarna and Afterpay.This article surmises to answer the question behind why these Mega-Tech companies want Affirm as well as the key risks to monitor.The math has completely changed for Affirm's future trajectory.

Affirm Holdings' Moat: Why World's Largest Retailers Want Affirm

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
Back on the 28 February this year, SaaS provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youzan-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11467:1" rel="noopener">China Youzan Limited (8083 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/gem/2021/0228/2021022800069.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer by way of a Scheme to take its GEM-listed shares private, then list 51.7%-held Youzan Technology on Hong Kong's mainboard by "way of introduction". Shareholders were to be offered HK$0.1352/share in cash plus an in-specie distribution of 0.05077265 Youzan Technology shares for every China Youzan share held. The total indicative Offer price was HK$2.3088/share, a 30.2% discount to last close. The scrip portion was based on a fair value of RMB35.73/share for Youzan Tech.
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In <a href="https://skr.ma/qgiJ9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Youzan (8083 HK): Proposal Towards Relisting Youzan Tech</a>, I recommended avoiding the stock -  China Youzan was up 283% in the past year, and 44% YTD prior to the Offer announcement. 
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Disinterested Scheme Shareholders <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/gem/2021/0506/2021050602278.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> at the First SGM on the 6 May, a rollover arrangement and other side-agreements - not the take-private proposal as was incorrectly reported by some media sources.
At the time, shares were trading at $2.09/share, down 37% since the delisting proposal. 
And shares continued to fall, with double-digit declines on multiple days including 19.5% on the 11 May on significant volume. 
The Scheme Document was expected to be posted on or before the 15 June, but was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/gem/2021/0715/2021071500984.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> on that day to at least the 19 October. 
Reportedly Youzan Tech's listing application had been rejected, however, the wording in the monthly update on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/gem/2021/0813/2021081300886.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 August</a> said "Youzan Technology has been revising features of its application", a slightly varied statement to "Youzan Technology has continued to progress its application with the Stock Exchange" seen in previous monthly <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/gem/2021/0715/2021071500984.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updates</a>. 
Shares touched a low of HK$0.71/share on the 23 August. 
<h3>The New News</h3>
China Youzan <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/gem/2021/0830/2021083000295.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> yesterday Youzan Tech has re-filed its application for the listing of shares, which will now be done by way of an offering of new shares, not a listing by introduction. 
Both the scrip ratio and cash portion remain unchanged under China Youzan's delisting transaction, by way of Scheme.
The estimated value per Youzan Tech shares by an independent valuer is now RMB21.76 (~HK$26.20/share), down 39% from the previous indicative price. 
Therefore the proposed consideration for China Youan shareholders is HK$1.4654/share (HK$0.1352 +(HK$0.05077265 x HK$26.20)), a 100.7% premium to last close, but a 55.7% discount to last close ahead of the initial announcement in February this year. 
Shares are up ~16% in the last two trading days, but down 74% since the delisting proposal and 37% adrift of the indicative Offer price in February. Those are pretty grim performance numbers.
There's probably value to be had here at the current level, but there are a multitude of factors at work in arriving at a "fair value." Further delays in the dispatch of the Scheme Doc are feasible. And will the Exchange grant this listing application, when it clearly had issues with the prior submission?
More below the fold.
</div>


Back on the 28 February this year, SaaS provider China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer by way of a Scheme to take its GEM-listed shares private, then list 51.7%-held Youzan Technology on Hong Kong's mainboard by "way of introduction". Shareholders were to be offered HK$0.1352/share in cash plus an in-specie distribution of 0.05077265 Youzan Technology shares for every China Youzan share held. The total indicative Offer price was HK$2.3088/share, a 30.2% discount to last close. The scrip portion was based on a fair value of RMB35.73/share for Youzan Tech.


In China Youzan (8083 HK): Proposal Towards Relisting Youzan Tech, I recommended avoiding the stock -  China Youzan was up 283% in the past year, and 44% YTD prior to the Offer announcement. 


Disinterested Scheme Shareholders approved at the First SGM on the 6 May, a rollover arrangement and other side-agreements - not the take-private proposal as was incorrectly reported by some media sources.
At the time, shares were trading at $2.09/share, down 37% since the delisting proposal. 
And shares continued to fall, with double-digit declines on multiple days including 19.5% on the 11 May on significant volume. 
The Scheme Document was expected to be posted on or before the 15 June, but was delayed on that day to at least the 19 October. 
Reportedly Youzan Tech's listing application had been rejected, however, the wording in the monthly update on the 13 August said "Youzan Technology has been revising features of its application", a slightly varied statement to "Youzan Technology has continued to progress its application with the Stock Exchange" seen in previous monthly updates. 
Shares touched a low of HK$0.71/share on the 23 August. 
The New News
China Youzan announced yesterday Youzan Tech has re-filed its application for the listing of shares, which will now be done by way of an offering of new shares, not a listing by introduction. 
Both the scrip ratio and cash portion remain unchanged under China Youzan's delisting transaction, by way of Scheme.
The estimated value per Youzan Tech shares by an independent valuer is now RMB21.76 (~HK$26.20/share), down 39% from the previous indicative price. 
Therefore the proposed consideration for China Youan shareholders is HK$1.4654/share (HK$0.1352 +(HK$0.05077265 x HK$26.20)), a 100.7% premium to last close, but a 55.7% discount to last close ahead of the initial announcement in February this year. 
Shares are up ~16% in the last two trading days, but down 74% since the delisting proposal and 37% adrift of the indicative Offer price in February. Those are pretty grim performance numbers.
There's probably value to be had here at the current level, but there are a multitude of factors at work in arriving at a "fair value." Further delays in the dispatch of the Scheme Doc are feasible. And will the Exchange grant this listing application, when it clearly had issues with the prior submission?
More below the fold.


Canada

Shopify Inc. provides a cloud-based commerce platform. The Company offers a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand. Shopify serves customers in Canada.

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Shopify (SHOP US)

Paypal + Pinterest Initial Thoughts

We are more bullish on the deal logic than initial reaction from the market and sell-side and would buy Paypal on this pullback.

Aaron Gabin

SiteMinder IPO - An Impressive Performance During Pandemic

SiteMinder is looking to raise about US$467m in its Australia IPO. It is an open hotel commerce platform that empowers hotels & accommodation...

Sumeet Singh

BigCommerce Insiders Dumped ~$480 Million Worth of Shares During One Year After IPO

We turn bearish on BigCommerce shares and forecast 30% downside potential as insider selling intensifies and revenue growth will slow down next year

Andrei Zakharov

Affirm Holdings' Moat: Why World's Largest Retailers Want Affirm

The story and thesis behind Affirm has drastically changed with the announcement of two new deals with the world's largest companies. Amazon and...

Investi Analyst

China Youzan (8083 HK): Once Bitten ...

But I would avoid this stock and extremely volatile. Plus there is a question mark over timing, and whether the listing gets Exchange approval. I...

David Blennerhassett

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