Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500 continues to hover below critical resistance at its 200-day moving average while market participants remain in a wait-and-see mode for new developments on U.S.-China trade and details on the latest border security proposal. At the same time, breadth improvements have extended to our Manufacturing Sector - a welcomed sight given its cyclical nature.  We are Upgrading Manufacturing to market weight from underweight. Our cap-weighted Manufacturing Sector has steadily improved in our RSR ranks due in large part to strength in Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within Manufacturing and Technology..

The S&amp;P 500 continues to hover below critical resistance at its 200-day moving average while market participants remain in a wait-and-see mode for new developments on U.S.-China trade and details on the latest border security proposal. At the same time, breadth improvements have extended to our Manufacturing Sector - a welcomed sight given its cyclical nature.  We are Upgrading Manufacturing to market weight from underweight. Our cap-weighted Manufacturing Sector has steadily improved in our RSR ranks due in large part to strength in Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within Manufacturing and Technology..

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Manufacturing Sector

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Last week we attended the AGM of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27474" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27474:1">Infibeam Avenues Ltd (INFIBEAM IN)</a>, an India based e-commerce and payments company offering services similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25906" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1">Shopify Inc (SHOP US)</a>.  A day before its AGM, Infibeam posted its worst single-day decline of over 70%. Much to our surprise, the AGM proceedings were calm and peaceful. The AGM also gave us an opportunity to interact with some company representatives and understanding their view on allegations made against the company. In this note, we bring you details on two of the alleged accounting irregularities and our view on the same that could help investors objectively evaluate the current situation faced by the company.

Last week we attended the AGM of Infibeam Avenues Ltd (INFIBEAM IN), an India based e-commerce and payments company offering services similar to Shopify Inc (SHOP US).  A day before its AGM, Infibeam posted its worst single-day decline of over 70%. Much to our surprise, the AGM proceedings were calm and peaceful. The AGM also gave us an opportunity to interact with some company representatives and understanding their view on allegations made against the company. In this note, we bring you details on two of the alleged accounting irregularities and our view on the same that could help investors objectively evaluate the current situation faced by the company.

AGM Diaries | Infibeam (INFIBEAM IN) Dubbed India's Shopify Shoplifted

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its strategtic partnerships, plus upcoming ICO for its subsidiary can make for interesting catalysts. Details are discussed in a three-part series.</li>
<li>In Part 2 of this three part series, we discuss the company's growth through partnerships and M&amp;A, financials, catalysts, and risks. </li>
</ul>


With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its strategtic partnerships, plus upcoming ICO for its subsidiary can make for interesting catalysts. Details are discussed in a three-part series.
In Part 2 of this three part series, we discuss the company's growth through partnerships and M&amp;A, financials, catalysts, and risks. 


Y Ventures: A Potential to Double (Part 2)

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24184" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a> was our top long idea for the past 8 months with a price target of $45.  At its current $55 per share, the stock price in optimism in the company’s transition from an E-commerce service provider (SP) to Software as a Service (SaaS) business model.  Once it fully transitions to a SaaS business, investors will see an upside in profit margins driven by the scalability of the product, compared to its current client by client, customized projects.  However, according to our checks, the optimism is largely unwarranted. Our new price target is $29, representing 47% downside to current stock price.

Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) was our top long idea for the past 8 months with a price target of $45.  At its current $55 per share, the stock price in optimism in the company’s transition from an E-commerce service provider (SP) to Software as a Service (SaaS) business model.  Once it fully transitions to a SaaS business, investors will see an upside in profit margins driven by the scalability of the product, compared to its current client by client, customized projects.  However, according to our checks, the optimism is largely unwarranted. Our new price target is $29, representing 47% downside to current stock price. 

Turning Negative on Baozun: Software Upgrade Delayed; E-Commerce Premiumization Slows

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

Canada

Shopify Inc. provides a cloud-based commerce platform. The Company offers a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand. Shopify serves customers in Canada.

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Shopify (SHOP US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Manufacturing Sector

The S&P 500 continues to hover below critical resistance at its 200-day moving average while market participants remain in a wait-and-see mode...

Vermilion Research

AGM Diaries | Infibeam (INFIBEAM IN) Dubbed India's Shopify Shoplifted

Last week we attended the AGM of Infibeam Avenues Ltd (INFIBEAM IN), an India based e-commerce and payments company offering services similar to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Y Ventures: A Potential to Double (Part 2)

With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce,...

Valerie Law, CFA

Turning Negative on Baozun: Software Upgrade Delayed; E-Commerce Premiumization Slows

Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) was our top long idea for the past 8 months with a price target of $45. At its current $55 per share, the stock price in...

JL Warren Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

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