Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mount-gibson-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19043:1" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU)</a> is a pure play on iron ore trading at 0.5x EV-EBITDA, with 77% of the market capitalization in cash in H1 FY24 (likely to grow).</li>
<li>The company is about to announce reinstating its dividend, and a 50% payout could result in a yield of 20% on the current share price. </li>
<li>The company's main catalyst is its earnings release in August, after which a board meeting will decide on future dividends (which it has already committed to shareholders). </li>
</ul>



Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU) is a pure play on iron ore trading at 0.5x EV-EBITDA, with 77% of the market capitalization in cash in H1 FY24 (likely to grow).
The company is about to announce reinstating its dividend, and a 50% payout could result in a yield of 20% on the current share price. 
The company's main catalyst is its earnings release in August, after which a board meeting will decide on future dividends (which it has already committed to shareholders). 


Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts

<ul>
<li>The pivot in capital allocation plans of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. </li>
<li>We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. </li>
<li>We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a>, and would take money off the table here.</li>
</ul>


The pivot in capital allocation plans of Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. 
We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. 
We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ), and would take money off the table here.


Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 27 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)</a> launched a conditional buyback to acquire a maximum of 350.0m shares (15.67% of outstanding) at HK$3.11, a 15.2% premium to undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Unlike the previous buybacks, the controlling shareholder can vote. Therefore, while the buyback offer is unattractive, the shareholder vote will pass. </li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, a 100% share minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 37.84%. The actual proration was around twice the minimum proration for the previous two. </li>
</ul>


On 27 March, Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK) launched a conditional buyback to acquire a maximum of 350.0m shares (15.67% of outstanding) at HK$3.11, a 15.2% premium to undisturbed price.
Unlike the previous buybacks, the controlling shareholder can vote. Therefore, while the buyback offer is unattractive, the shareholder vote will pass. 
Based on the irrevocables, a 100% share minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 37.84%. The actual proration was around twice the minimum proration for the previous two. 


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. </li>
<li>Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. </li>
<li>A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. </li>
</ul>


Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. 
Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. 
A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. 


China National Building Material / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> has launched a conditional share buyback to acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares (18.47% of H Shares) at HK$4.03.</li>
<li>The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. </li>
<li>The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky, the votes should pass. </li>
</ul>



China National Building Material (3323 HK) has launched a conditional share buyback to acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares (18.47% of H Shares) at HK$4.03.
The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky, the votes should pass. 


China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Short Changes Minorities

Hong Kong

Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd. produces and sells coking coal products and side products in China. The Company is principally engaged in mining of coking coal and production and sales of raw and clean coking coal,

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Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)

Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts

Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU) is a pure play on iron ore trading at 0.5x EV-EBITDA, with 77% of the market capitalization in cash. We look forward to...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

We provide a rationale for why we do not like Whitehaven Coal's suspension of its buy back program despite the strong coal price environment and...

Sameer Taneja

Skyworth (751 HK): Another Buyback

The buyback is likely a precursor to an eventual privatisation offer. Although the offer is unattractive, the vote will pass. The minimum proration...

Arun George

China: Revival 2.0?

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts

Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU) is a pure play on iron ore trading at 0.5x EV-EBITDA, with 77% of the market capitalization in cash. We look forward to...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

We provide a rationale for why we do not like Whitehaven Coal's suspension of its buy back program despite the strong coal price environment and...

Sameer Taneja

Skyworth (751 HK): Another Buyback

The buyback is likely a precursor to an eventual privatisation offer. Although the offer is unattractive, the vote will pass. The minimum proration...

Arun George

China: Revival 2.0?

​Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Short Changes Minorities

The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky,...

Arun George

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.