Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures</li>
<li>With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.</li>
<li>ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24</li>
</ul>


KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24


KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs. </li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs. 
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The overall 4Q24E performance of the six banks under our coverage is not bad, with a combined net profit of Bt39.2bn, up 6.9% YoY due to a decline in provisioning.</li><li>However, the figure is expected to have fallen 10.3% QoQ, pressured by a reduction in NIM. Among the banks, KKP is expected to post the most notable YoY profit growth, driven by a significant drop in provisioning, while KBANK may have been the only bank likely to see provisioning decline both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>Looking ahead to 2025E, we prefer banks with a higher proportion of retail and SME loans. </li></ul>

The overall 4Q24E performance of the six banks under our coverage is not bad, with a combined net profit of Bt39.2bn, up 6.9% YoY due to a decline in provisioning.However, the figure is expected to have fallen 10.3% QoQ, pressured by a reduction in NIM. Among the banks, KKP is expected to post the most notable YoY profit growth, driven by a significant drop in provisioning, while KBANK may have been the only bank likely to see provisioning decline both YoY and QoQ.Looking ahead to 2025E, we prefer banks with a higher proportion of retail and SME loans. 

Banking: The Overall Profit Outlook for the Banking Sector in 4Q24E Is Not Bad

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to lower interest rates only if inflation falls significantly below the target range and the economy contracts more sharply than anticipated.</li><li>Otherwise, the bank is likely to maintain its current policy rate of 2.25%, citing similar justifications as before.</li><li>KTX maintains our recommendation for banking and insurance stocks, including SCB, TTB, KBANK, and BLA, as they are expected to benefit from stable interest rates throughout the year.</li></ul>

KTX expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to lower interest rates only if inflation falls significantly below the target range and the economy contracts more sharply than anticipated.Otherwise, the bank is likely to maintain its current policy rate of 2.25%, citing similar justifications as before.KTX maintains our recommendation for banking and insurance stocks, including SCB, TTB, KBANK, and BLA, as they are expected to benefit from stable interest rates throughout the year.

Economic Update: Inflation in December 2024

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,370/1,350 points and the resistance at 1,420/1,440 points.</li><li>Key highlights influencing the market include: i) the first 100-day policies after Trump's inauguration as US president on January 20, 2025, such as raising import tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, expelling migrant workers, cutting corporate tax rates, ending the Russia-Ukraine war, and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement (clean energy);</li><li>ii) selling pressure from LTF maturity</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,370/1,350 points and the resistance at 1,420/1,440 points.Key highlights influencing the market include: i) the first 100-day policies after Trump's inauguration as US president on January 20, 2025, such as raising import tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, expelling migrant workers, cutting corporate tax rates, ending the Russia-Ukraine war, and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement (clean energy);ii) selling pressure from LTF maturity

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

KTC reveals granular detail for many Bank of Thailand relief measures on consumer debt, suggesting that credit metrics are very weak, and this is...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs, after having looked at HK, India,...

Sumeet Singh

Banking: The Overall Profit Outlook for the Banking Sector in 4Q24E Is Not Bad

The overall 4Q24E performance of the six banks under our coverage is not bad, with a combined net profit of Bt39.2bn, up 6.9% YoY due to a decline...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Inflation in December 2024

KTX expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to lower interest rates only if inflation falls significantly below the target range and the economy...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: January 2025

Clouded by concerns over the first 100-day measures following Trump's inauguration as US president. The SET Index is expected to weaken...

Krungthai XSpring

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