Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Most Asian bourses surged, while the SET saw buying activity flow into banking, commerce, hospital, and tourism stocks.</li><li>In addition, AOT managed to rise, which helped the index close higher despite DELTA's decline.</li><li>However, the recovery remains uncertain due to light trading volume.</li></ul>

Most Asian bourses surged, while the SET saw buying activity flow into banking, commerce, hospital, and tourism stocks.In addition, AOT managed to rise, which helped the index close higher despite DELTA's decline.However, the recovery remains uncertain due to light trading volume.

<ul><li>KTX maintains a positive outlook on Thailand's economic growth in 2025E, with the BoT forecasting +2.9% YoY and the NESDC projecting +2.8%, an improvement from +2.5% in 2024 (BoT at 2.7% and NESDC at 2.6%).</li><li>However, uncertainties remain high, particularly regarding the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies.</li><li>The NESDC expects export growth of +3.5% in 2025E, down from +3.8% in 2024, while private investment is projected to turn positive at +3.2%, recovering from –0.5% last year. </li></ul>

KTX maintains a positive outlook on Thailand's economic growth in 2025E, with the BoT forecasting +2.9% YoY and the NESDC projecting +2.8%, an improvement from +2.5% in 2024 (BoT at 2.7% and NESDC at 2.6%).However, uncertainties remain high, particularly regarding the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies.The NESDC expects export growth of +3.5% in 2025E, down from +3.8% in 2024, while private investment is projected to turn positive at +3.2%, recovering from –0.5% last year. 

Economic Update: Optimistic View to 25E GDP Growth

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET rose in line with Asian bourses, driven by expectations surrounding LTFs and the strong performance of ADVANC, GULF, INTUCH, and DELTA, pushing the index to 1,298.72 points.</li><li>However, it quickly retreated in the afternoon as the market lacked new supportive factors and uncertainty lingered over the 4Q24 performances.</li><li>The index initially bounced up but then quickly swung back down, reflecting an unstable price pattern, with buying momentum concentrated in a few stocks. </li></ul>

The SET rose in line with Asian bourses, driven by expectations surrounding LTFs and the strong performance of ADVANC, GULF, INTUCH, and DELTA, pushing the index to 1,298.72 points.However, it quickly retreated in the afternoon as the market lacked new supportive factors and uncertainty lingered over the 4Q24 performances.The index initially bounced up but then quickly swung back down, reflecting an unstable price pattern, with buying momentum concentrated in a few stocks. 

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a rounding-top pattern within the 1,220-1,506-point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index continues its downward trajectory (zig-zag down), with signs of further weakness emerging after a three-day rebound from the new low of 1,252 points on February 7. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a rounding-top pattern within the 1,220-1,506-point range.In the short term, the index continues its downward trajectory (zig-zag down), with signs of further weakness emerging after a three-day rebound from the new low of 1,252 points on February 7. 

KTX Zoom - US Retail Sales and EU 4Q24 GDP Growth FEBRUARY 14, 2025

<ul><li>Thai inflation continues to recover, keeping real interest rates the lowest in Asia, increasing the chance of maintaining interest rates.</li><li>Thai inflation rate for January (to be announced on February 5) is expected to continue accelerating.</li><li>The consensus forecasts a 1.4% YoY increase (vs. 1.2% YoY in the previous month), remaining within the target range of 1-3%. </li></ul>

Thai inflation continues to recover, keeping real interest rates the lowest in Asia, increasing the chance of maintaining interest rates.Thai inflation rate for January (to be announced on February 5) is expected to continue accelerating.The consensus forecasts a 1.4% YoY increase (vs. 1.2% YoY in the previous month), remaining within the target range of 1-3%. 

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300...

Krungthai XSpring

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Krungthai XSpring

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