Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform; rating, and slightly raise 12M FWD fair value to Bt157.00 (from Bt156.50), based on PBV of 1.05x (from 1.07x), reflecting revised macro assumptions with an upward-sloping yield curve and 10Y yield at 1.83% (from 1.23%).</li><li>Earnings may remain subdued from NIM compression; however, a strong CET1 at 17.7% should support an 80% payout, implying ~7% dividend yield p.a. over the next three years.</li><li>We expect SCB’s 1Q26E profit at Bt9.7bn, down 22.4% YoY and 4.3% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform; rating, and slightly raise 12M FWD fair value to Bt157.00 (from Bt156.50), based on PBV of 1.05x (from 1.07x), reflecting revised macro assumptions with an upward-sloping yield curve and 10Y yield at 1.83% (from 1.23%).Earnings may remain subdued from NIM compression; however, a strong CET1 at 17.7% should support an 80% payout, implying ~7% dividend yield p.a. over the next three years.We expect SCB’s 1Q26E profit at Bt9.7bn, down 22.4% YoY and 4.3% QoQ.

SCB X Plc. (SCB): Profit Expected To Decline In 1Q26E - Outperform

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a new FV of Bt156.50, based on 1.04x PBV (previously Bt160.40, 1.07x).</li><li>The stock offers ~14% upside to FV, with long-term earnings growth of 3.7% CAGR in 2026–28E broadly in line with peers, though tactical upside remains very limited as PBV is near +2 S.D. of its 180-day average.</li><li>SCB reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt10.3bn (-4.5% YoY, -20.1% QoQ), ~6% below expectations due to higher provisions.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating with a new FV of Bt156.50, based on 1.04x PBV (previously Bt160.40, 1.07x).The stock offers ~14% upside to FV, with long-term earnings growth of 3.7% CAGR in 2026–28E broadly in line with peers, though tactical upside remains very limited as PBV is near +2 S.D. of its 180-day average.SCB reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt10.3bn (-4.5% YoY, -20.1% QoQ), ~6% below expectations due to higher provisions.

SCB X Plc. (SCB): Slight Earnings Miss on Extra Provisions

<ul><li>We downgrade our call to Neutral (from Outperform) with a 12M FV of Bt146.75, based on 0.98x PBV (from Bt142.60 and 0.96x), using a multiple regression model.</li><li>The share price has gained 6% since our last report, leaving limited upside.</li><li>Tactical PBV at +2 S.D. suggests limited upside risk, while long-term growth remains in line with the sector.</li></ul>

We downgrade our call to Neutral (from Outperform) with a 12M FV of Bt146.75, based on 0.98x PBV (from Bt142.60 and 0.96x), using a multiple regression model.The share price has gained 6% since our last report, leaving limited upside.Tactical PBV at +2 S.D. suggests limited upside risk, while long-term growth remains in line with the sector.

SCB X Plc. (SCB): Upbeat Earnings Already Priced In – Neutral (12M FWD Fair Value Bt146.75)

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt134.00, based on a PBV of 1.94x (derived from a regression model), offering upside of approximately 6%).</li><li> The long-term growth outlook is in line with the industry, with net profit expected to grow at an a CAGR of 5.1% during 2025-27E, supported by a decline in provisions.</li><li>The tactical view is neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt134.00, based on a PBV of 1.94x (derived from a regression model), offering upside of approximately 6%). The long-term growth outlook is in line with the industry, with net profit expected to grow at an a CAGR of 5.1% during 2025-27E, supported by a decline in provisions.The tactical view is neutral.

SCB X Public Company Limited - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings on Non-NII

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.</li><li>We expect the Thai equity market to place greater emphasis on domestic political developments, particularly the progress in the prime minister selection process.</li><li>KTX maintains our view that GULF is the top pick in the power sector, supported by its low-risk power portfolio (94% of capacity sold to EGAT, with fuel cost pass-through).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.We expect the Thai equity market to place greater emphasis on domestic political developments, particularly the progress in the prime minister selection process.KTX maintains our view that GULF is the top pick in the power sector, supported by its low-risk power portfolio (94% of capacity sold to EGAT, with fuel cost pass-through).

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 19, 2026

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

SCB X Plc. (SCB): Profit Expected To Decline In 1Q26E - Outperform

Earnings may remain subdued from NIM compression; however, a strong CET1 at 17.7% should support an 80% payout, implying ~7% dividend yield p.a....

Krungthai XSpring

SCB X Plc. (SCB): Slight Earnings Miss on Extra Provisions

We maintain an Outperform rating with a new FV of Bt156.50, based on 1.04x PBV (previously Bt160.40, 1.07x).The stock offers ~14% upside to FV,...

Krungthai XSpring

SCB X Plc. (SCB): Upbeat Earnings Already Priced In – Neutral (12M FWD Fair Value Bt146.75)

We downgrade our call to Neutral (from Outperform) with a 12M FV of Bt146.75, based on 0.98x PBV (from Bt142.60 and 0.96x), using a multiple...

Krungthai XSpring

SCB X Public Company Limited - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings on Non-NII

We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt134.00, based on a PBV of 1.94x (derived from a regression model), offering upside of...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 19, 2026

The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.

Krungthai XSpring

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