Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Asset World Corporation / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.</li>
</ul>


Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.


SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

Event-Driven

<p>The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.</p><p>The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.</p><p>The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.</p><p>Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.</p>

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

<p>The SET50 Index is one of the very few indices that is still weighted by full market cap. Stocks need to have a minimum free float of 20% to be eligible for index inclusion but the free float is not used to determine the weight of the stock in the index.</p><p>This had led to stocks with low free floats having an inordinately high weight in the index. The most recent case in point was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a> - the stock was an inclusion in the SET50 index at the December review. DELTA is now the third largest stock in the index with a 6.07% weighting, even though the SET free float of the stock is only 22.35%. The stock has jumped 1000% over the last year.</p><p>Media reports now indicate that there are changes brewing that could result in the SET revising the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and a change to the calculation methodology of the SET50 Index that would see it move from a full market cap weighted index to a free float market cap weighted index.</p><p>In this Insight, we take a look at the stocks that would be affected by the changes and the impact of passive fund trading on the stocks.</p>

The SET50 Index is one of the very few indices that is still weighted by full market cap. Stocks need to have a minimum free float of 20% to be eligible for index inclusion but the free float is not used to determine the weight of the stock in the index.This had led to stocks with low free floats having an inordinately high weight in the index. The most recent case in point was Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) - the stock was an inclusion in the SET50 index at the December review. DELTA is now the third largest stock in the index with a 6.07% weighting, even though the SET free float of the stock is only 22.35%. The stock has jumped 1000% over the last year.Media reports now indicate that there are changes brewing that could result in the SET revising the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and a change to the calculation methodology of the SET50 Index that would see it move from a full market cap weighted index to a free float market cap weighted index.In this Insight, we take a look at the stocks that would be affected by the changes and the impact of passive fund trading on the stocks.

SET50 Index: Change to Free Float Weighting In the Works?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> is the largest home improvement retailer in Malaysia, with a revenue market share of 29.1% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. At the fixed IPO price of RM1.60 per share, Mr DIY will raise proceeds of $362 million (primary/secondary split of 20%/80%). Fourteen cornerstone investors will subscribe for 234.7 million of the offer shares. The cornerstone investors include Aberdeen Standard Investments, AIA, BlackRock, Fidelity and JP Morgan Asset Management. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-make-your-own" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous note</a>, we highlighted that with a commendable performance during the COVID-19 outbreak, we continue to believe that Mr DIY’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, we think that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Mr DIY tempting at the proposed price. </p></div></div></div>

MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) is the largest home improvement retailer in Malaysia, with a revenue market share of 29.1% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. At the fixed IPO price of RM1.60 per share, Mr DIY will raise proceeds of $362 million (primary/secondary split of 20%/80%). Fourteen cornerstone investors will subscribe for 234.7 million of the offer shares. The cornerstone investors include Aberdeen Standard Investments, AIA, BlackRock, Fidelity and JP Morgan Asset Management. In our previous note, we highlighted that with a commendable performance during the COVID-19 outbreak, we continue to believe that Mr DIY’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, we think that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Mr DIY tempting at the proposed price. 

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We visited Thailand's sole listed non-life reinsurer Thai Re and the upcountry construction materials retailer Siam Global yesterday. Here's a quick run-down:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Siam Global</strong> reported an 11% revenue growth and 4% earnings growth in 2019. They are currently reducing store size, but face problems in foreign expansion. <ul><li>The company recently runs its own coffee shop Labayon and Miniso stores, which are profitable. They only provide partial compensation to employees who have been temporarily suspended due to COVID-19.</li></ul>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Thai Reinsurance</strong> reported doubling of earnings on the back of gross premium reduction of 8%. The company has a Bt400m portfolio invested in REITs and infrastructure funds, which could potentially be marked down in the near future. <ul><li>They recently issued a new COVID-19 policy, which they expect to be profitable. Short of committing to a dividend in 2020, Thai Re will try its best to pay it this year.</li></ul>
</li>
</ul>

We visited Thailand's sole listed non-life reinsurer Thai Re and the upcountry construction materials retailer Siam Global yesterday. Here's a quick run-down:

Siam Global reported an 11% revenue growth and 4% earnings growth in 2019. They are currently reducing store size, but face problems in foreign expansion. The company recently runs its own coffee shop Labayon and Miniso stores, which are profitable. They only provide partial compensation to employees who have been temporarily suspended due to COVID-19.


Thai Reinsurance reported doubling of earnings on the back of gross premium reduction of 8%. The company has a Bt400m portfolio invested in REITs and infrastructure funds, which could potentially be marked down in the near future. They recently issued a new COVID-19 policy, which they expect to be profitable. Short of committing to a dividend in 2020, Thai Re will try its best to pay it this year.



Thailand

Siam Global House Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based retailer specializing in construction materials, home decorative products, tools, and equipment for construction, home improvement, and gardening. It operates large warehouse stores under the "Global House" trade name, offering a wide array of products including electrical appliances, furniture, and plumbing equipment. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Mueang Roi Et, Thailand.

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Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB)

SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

There are 3 changes to the SET50 index at the December rebalance. AWC, BANPU and TIDLOR will replace BJC, DELTA and STA. AWC is a 'surprise' and...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

The SET has commenced a market consultation on the proposed changes to make its indices free float market cap weighted. We look at the impact on...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index: Change to Free Float Weighting In the Works?

There is a strong possibility that the SET revises the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and changes...

Brian Freitas

Mr D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights

Converge ICT Solutions Inc (ITC PM) is the only major pure-play fixed broadband provider, with an exclusive focus on serving the Philippine fixed...

Arun George

Company Visits: Thai Re and Siam Global

We visited Thailand's sole listed non-life reinsurer Thai Re and the upcountry construction materials retailer Siam Global yesterday. Here's a...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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