Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ETFs.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (SBP12 HK)

<ul>
<li>Biokin's traditional chemical drug and TCM businesses would continue to shrink and their valuation contribution can be negligible. The collaboration agreement for BL-B01D1 with BMS changes the outlook of Biokin.</li>
<li>The clinical data of BL-B01D1 look good so far, but the R&amp;D failure risk of BL-B01D1 is not low. It is uncertain if BL-B01D1 would finally be druggable.</li>
<li>Biokin is overvalued and there is big bubble in valuation. If BL-B01D1 fails in R&amp;D or its clinical data fail to meet high expectation, Biokin’s market value will plummet.</li>
</ul>


Biokin's traditional chemical drug and TCM businesses would continue to shrink and their valuation contribution can be negligible. The collaboration agreement for BL-B01D1 with BMS changes the outlook of Biokin.
The clinical data of BL-B01D1 look good so far, but the R&amp;D failure risk of BL-B01D1 is not low. It is uncertain if BL-B01D1 would finally be druggable.
Biokin is overvalued and there is big bubble in valuation. If BL-B01D1 fails in R&amp;D or its clinical data fail to meet high expectation, Biokin’s market value will plummet.


Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Index Rebalance

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power (600482 CH)

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)

<ul><li>Chinese innovative drugmaker <strong>Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. </strong>has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering (IPO) in an effort to tap fresh funding to support new drug development and overseas expansion.</li><li>Biokin, already listed in Shanghai, did not disclose the target size of its Hong Kong offering. According to its preliminary prospectus, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., and Citic Securities Co. Ltd. are joint sponsors for the share sale.</li><li>Founded in 1996, Biokin began as a producer of chemical generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The company has since 2011 moved on to novel biological drugs, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for cancer treatment.</li></ul>

Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering (IPO) in an effort to tap fresh funding to support new drug development and overseas expansion.Biokin, already listed in Shanghai, did not disclose the target size of its Hong Kong offering. According to its preliminary prospectus, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., and Citic Securities Co. Ltd. are joint sponsors for the share sale.Founded in 1996, Biokin began as a producer of chemical generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The company has since 2011 moved on to novel biological drugs, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for cancer treatment.

Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard 

China

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company produces children's medicine, cardiovascular drugs, anesthetics, chronic disease drugs, and more. Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical conducts businesses worldwide.

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Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Biokin's future hinges on collaboration with BMS for BL-B01D1, as traditional business shrink due to VBP/fierce competition.Overvaluation poses...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard

Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

​Biokin's future hinges on collaboration with BMS for BL-B01D1, as traditional business shrink due to VBP/fierce competition.Overvaluation poses...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Cutting-Edge Drugmaker Biokin Taps Hong Kong Market to Fund Foray Aboard

Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering...

Caixin Global

Biokin's future hinges on collaboration with BMS for BL-B01D1, as traditional business shrink due to VBP/fierce competition.Overvaluation poses...