Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 16 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.


CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.</li>
<li>Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.</li>
<li>If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.
Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.
If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group / Event-Driven

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group (3320 HK)

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP officially begins. Enterprises involved in this VBP include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pharmaceuticals-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3625:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC (1093 HK)</a>, etc..</li>
<li>We analyzed Chinese Biotech companies’ P/S range based on different product revenue growth. Due to low profitability, there is “a valuation discount” if they are included in global valuation system.</li>
<li>KPC has agreed to acquire 51% interest in CR Shenghuo from CR Sanjiu. Due to good performance, we are full of expectations for the future acquisition/integration within China Resources.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP officially begins. Enterprises involved in this VBP include Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK), Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH), CSPC (1093 HK), etc..
We analyzed Chinese Biotech companies’ P/S range based on different product revenue growth. Due to low profitability, there is “a valuation discount” if they are included in global valuation system.
KPC has agreed to acquire 51% interest in CR Shenghuo from CR Sanjiu. Due to good performance, we are full of expectations for the future acquisition/integration within China Resources.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.24) - 10th VBP, Biotech Valuation Logic, China Resources Reorganization

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ETFs.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical (300573 CH)

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP has started. Kelun Pharma, Fosun Pharma and CSPC are expected to be the big pharmaceutical companies that get hit most in this VBP.</li>
<li>For biopharmaceutical companies, rather than R&amp;D technology, revenue scale is the most important moat. Accordingly, we recommend to invest medium and large biotech that are currently scaling up.</li>
<li>Xingqi’s share price decline is related to the potential lower-than-expected performance in 24Q3. Sales expansion of 0.01% atropine eye drops takes time considering the difficulty of new drug hospital admission.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP has started. Kelun Pharma, Fosun Pharma and CSPC are expected to be the big pharmaceutical companies that get hit most in this VBP.
For biopharmaceutical companies, rather than R&amp;D technology, revenue scale is the most important moat. Accordingly, we recommend to invest medium and large biotech that are currently scaling up.
Xingqi’s share price decline is related to the potential lower-than-expected performance in 24Q3. Sales expansion of 0.01% atropine eye drops takes time considering the difficulty of new drug hospital admission.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

China

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include large infusion products, tablets, capsules, antibiotic injection, lyophilized powder for injection, and traditional Chinese medicine.

Price Gauge
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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH)

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI indices (and a bunch of others) rebalance at the close today - it's going to be a big volume day in China. The CSI300 adds have...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.24) - 10th VBP, Biotech Valuation Logic, China Resources Reorganization

The 10th national VBP kicks off. Chinese Biotech face valuation discount when included in global valuation system. China Resources is undergoing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI indices (and a bunch of others) rebalance at the close today - it's going to be a big volume day in China. The CSI300 adds have...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.24) - 10th VBP, Biotech Valuation Logic, China Resources Reorganization

The 10th national VBP kicks off. Chinese Biotech face valuation discount when included in global valuation system. China Resources is undergoing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

​10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...