HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The medical insurance statistics reflected that medical insurance funds are facing increasing pressure. If income/expenditure maintain average growth rates in recent years, there would be a deficit state in 2024.</li>
<li>Due to increasing pressure on medical insurance fund, the entire process of innovative drug evaluation/NRDL negotiation this year will be more strictly enforced, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh (3692 HK) </a>is an exception.</li>
<li>For Henlius’ privatization, completing Pre-Conditions in 24Q4 looks tight. Considering Chinese New Year holiday, the privatization may not be completed until at least mid-to-late February 2025.The deal will get up.</li>
</ul>


The medical insurance statistics reflected that medical insurance funds are facing increasing pressure. If income/expenditure maintain average growth rates in recent years, there would be a deficit state in 2024.
Due to increasing pressure on medical insurance fund, the entire process of innovative drug evaluation/NRDL negotiation this year will be more strictly enforced, but Hansoh (3692 HK) is an exception.
For Henlius’ privatization, completing Pre-Conditions in 24Q4 looks tight. Considering Chinese New Year holiday, the privatization may not be completed until at least mid-to-late February 2025.The deal will get up.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep29)- Henlius Privatization Update, NHSA Fee Control, Hansoh Is Exception

Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The imagination brought to the market by Kelun’s traditional businesses (infusion business, antibiotics and bulk pharmaceutical chemicals, generic drugs) is not high. So, the only highlight is Kelun-bio’s ADC pipeline.</li>
<li>Considering that Kelun has lost pricing power due to VBP, and both Chuanning and Kelun bio have been spun off and listed independently, Kelun's valuation will not be too high.</li>
<li>Our forecast is net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024-2026 is in the range of RMB3-5 billion. Reasonable market value is RMB30-50 billion. Subsidiary Kelun Bio is a better bet.</li>
</ul>


The imagination brought to the market by Kelun’s traditional businesses (infusion business, antibiotics and bulk pharmaceutical chemicals, generic drugs) is not high. So, the only highlight is Kelun-bio’s ADC pipeline.
Considering that Kelun has lost pricing power due to VBP, and both Chuanning and Kelun bio have been spun off and listed independently, Kelun's valuation will not be too high.
Our forecast is net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024-2026 is in the range of RMB3-5 billion. Reasonable market value is RMB30-50 billion. Subsidiary Kelun Bio is a better bet.


Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.CH) - The Real Breakthrough Point in Valuation Is ADC Pipeline

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Index Rebalance

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power (600482 CH)

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kelun-biotech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36801:1" rel="noopener">Kelun Biotech</a> (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.
KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank / Index Rebalance

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (601825 CH)

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

China

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include large infusion products, tablets, capsules, antibiotic injection, lyophilized powder for injection, and traditional Chinese medicine.

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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep29)- Henlius Privatization Update, NHSA Fee Control, Hansoh Is Exception

The approval process of Henlius' privatization is slow, but the deal will get up. Medical insurance fee control policies will continue. Different...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang