HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kelun-Biotech did not get widespread attention until it reached three license and collaboration agreements with Merck, with upfront and milestone payments totaling up to US$11.8 billion.</li>
<li>The remaining products have limited investment value. After Kelun-Biotech out-licensed all of its valuable core assets in pipeline, it could mainly remain at the stage of biotech in the future.</li>
<li>The original core R&amp;D team members have left, which means the "root of Kelun-Biotech is broken”. The lack of sustainable follow-up R&amp;D capability would have negative impact on valuation performance.  </li>
</ul>


Kelun-Biotech did not get widespread attention until it reached three license and collaboration agreements with Merck, with upfront and milestone payments totaling up to US$11.8 billion.
The remaining products have limited investment value. After Kelun-Biotech out-licensed all of its valuable core assets in pipeline, it could mainly remain at the stage of biotech in the future.
The original core R&amp;D team members have left, which means the "root of Kelun-Biotech is broken”. The lack of sustainable follow-up R&amp;D capability would have negative impact on valuation performance.  


Pre-IPO Kelun Biotech - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China unveiled the "No. 1 central document", providing a good opportunity for domestic healthcare enterprises to develop rural medical market - Its market size cannot be ignored.</li>
<li>The 8th national VBP has been officially launched last week. Pfizer is the most affected of all foreign big pharma, which would have certain impact on its China business. </li>
<li>We have noticed that the unified medical insurance code of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula granules is accelerating, which seems to be paving the way for the future VBP.</li>
</ul>


China unveiled the "No. 1 central document", providing a good opportunity for domestic healthcare enterprises to develop rural medical market - Its market size cannot be ignored.
The 8th national VBP has been officially launched last week. Pfizer is the most affected of all foreign big pharma, which would have certain impact on its China business. 
We have noticed that the unified medical insurance code of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula granules is accelerating, which seems to be paving the way for the future VBP.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.24) - No. 1 Central Document, 8th National VBP, TCM Formula Granules

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There could be some catalyst for Hengrui, such as the NRDL negotiation in early January 2023, the slowing down of the negative impact of VBP and the increasing outpatient volume. </li>
<li>Hengrui's performance low point was in 2022, and it would gradually recover after that. If investors want to invest in Hengrui, 2023 is a good time to take action.</li>
<li>However, Hengrui could be hard to return to its peak. Without the next PD-1 level blockbuster product, it would be difficult for Hengrui to achieve complete performance reversal. </li>
</ul>


There could be some catalyst for Hengrui, such as the NRDL negotiation in early January 2023, the slowing down of the negative impact of VBP and the increasing outpatient volume. 
Hengrui's performance low point was in 2022, and it would gradually recover after that. If investors want to invest in Hengrui, 2023 is a good time to take action.
However, Hengrui could be hard to return to its peak. Without the next PD-1 level blockbuster product, it would be difficult for Hengrui to achieve complete performance reversal. 


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - About The Performance Recovery and the Concerns Behind

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Merck entered into an agreement with Kelun to develop seven new ADC candidates. Merck will pay an upfront payment of US$175 million, with milestone payments worth up to US$9.3 billion.</li>
<li>It's a strong signal that Merck gives up acquiring Seagen and fully embraces Kelun. Merck may not just simply recognize Kelun’s ADC candidates but is optimistic about its ADC platform/technology.</li>
<li>Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises are becoming more pragmatic and peaceful in licensing cooperation, which has more trend significance for the development of industry than the value of a product or an enterprise. </li>
</ul>


Merck entered into an agreement with Kelun to develop seven new ADC candidates. Merck will pay an upfront payment of US$175 million, with milestone payments worth up to US$9.3 billion.
It's a strong signal that Merck gives up acquiring Seagen and fully embraces Kelun. Merck may not just simply recognize Kelun’s ADC candidates but is optimistic about its ADC platform/technology.
Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises are becoming more pragmatic and peaceful in licensing cooperation, which has more trend significance for the development of industry than the value of a product or an enterprise. 


Merck Puts Eye-Popping $9.3B in ADC Deal with Kelun - The "New Story" Is About to Begin

<ul>
<li>Medical Insurance Bureau of Hebei released the document on centralized procurement of OK lens, which was the first detailed rules about OK lens VBP in China.</li>
<li>The results of orthodontic material centralized procurement of 16 provincial alliance led by Shaanxi were released. We analyzed the direct impacts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)</a> and the outlook.</li>
<li>Even from the perspective of the whole process of the development of China's pharmaceutical industry after the reform and opening up, 2022 is an extraordinary year for the pharmaceutical industry.</li>
</ul>


Medical Insurance Bureau of Hebei released the document on centralized procurement of OK lens, which was the first detailed rules about OK lens VBP in China.
The results of orthodontic material centralized procurement of 16 provincial alliance led by Shaanxi were released. We analyzed the direct impacts on Angelalign Technology (6699 HK) and the outlook.
Even from the perspective of the whole process of the development of China's pharmaceutical industry after the reform and opening up, 2022 is an extraordinary year for the pharmaceutical industry.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25) - OK Lens VBP, Angelalign, Extraordinary 2022 for Pharmaceuticals

China

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include large infusion products, tablets, capsules, antibiotic injection, lyophilized powder for injection, and traditional Chinese medicine.

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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH)

Pre-IPO Kelun Biotech - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

After out-licensing all valuable core assets to Merck, Kelun-Biotech's remaining pipeline has limited value. As core R&D team have left, the lack...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.24) - No. 1 Central Document, 8th National VBP, TCM Formula Granules

China unveiled "No. 1 central document" to enhance the development of rural medical market. The 8th national VBP is coming. Pfizer is under heavy...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - About The Performance Recovery and the Concerns Behind

Hengrui's low point was in 2022.Performance will gradually recover due to the ease of negative policy impact.But share price's hard to generate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Merck Puts Eye-Popping $9.3B in ADC Deal with Kelun - The "New Story" Is About to Begin

After Merck gives up acquiring Seagen and fully embraces Kelun for the 3rd time, Kelun's outlook further brightened. Compared with Akeso/Summit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25) - OK Lens VBP, Angelalign, Extraordinary 2022 for Pharmaceuticals

The OK lens VBP in Hebei was the first to release detailed rules. The orthodontic material VBP result would affect Angelalign's outlook. 2022 is an...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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