Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.</li>
<li>Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.</li>
<li>Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.</li>
</ul>


Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.
Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.
Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.


The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Lithium oversupply of ~20% persists despite recent mine headlines, keeping long-term price pressure intact.</li>
<li>CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) remains cushioned, with lower lithium prices enhancing its cost advantage.</li>
<li>Albemarle (ALB US) and other upstream miners face margin squeeze as oversupply caps near-term upside.</li>
</ul>


Lithium oversupply of ~20% persists despite recent mine headlines, keeping long-term price pressure intact.
CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) remains cushioned, with lower lithium prices enhancing its cost advantage.
Albemarle (ALB US) and other upstream miners face margin squeeze as oversupply caps near-term upside.


Lithium Oversupply Persists: CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) Cushioned, Albemarle (ALB US) Under Pressure

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORY EVs / In Depth: Chinese EV-makers lured by Thai perks face reality check</li><li>IMF /China renews calls for IMF quota reform to boost the voice of emerging markets</li><li>Social security /Beijing should bolster social security to boost consumption, researchers say</li></ul>

TOP STORY EVs / In Depth: Chinese EV-makers lured by Thai perks face reality checkIMF /China renews calls for IMF quota reform to boost the voice of emerging marketsSocial security /Beijing should bolster social security to boost consumption, researchers say

CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check 

<ul><li>China’s lithium supply glut is worsening, with output expected to expand by 41% this year, fueling a steeper downward trend in prices for this material, a crucial component of electric vehicle batteries.</li><li>China’s domestic production of lithium carbonate is expected to reach 650,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41%, according to Fan Runze, a senior industry analyst at research institute Antaike.</li><li>With more supply expected to be released in the second half, lithium prices could drop to their lowest point of the year, said Fan at a Wednesday conference.</li></ul>

China’s lithium supply glut is worsening, with output expected to expand by 41% this year, fueling a steeper downward trend in prices for this material, a crucial component of electric vehicle batteries.China’s domestic production of lithium carbonate is expected to reach 650,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41%, according to Fan Runze, a senior industry analyst at research institute Antaike.With more supply expected to be released in the second half, lithium prices could drop to their lowest point of the year, said Fan at a Wednesday conference.

China’s Lithium Mountain Grows as Oversupply Drags Down Prices Further  

China

Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells lithium products.  The Company's products include industrial lithium carbonate, battery lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide.

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Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)

The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

The most active lithium carbonate contract surged 9% to 95,200 yuan ($13,400) per ton today following a positive forecast from Ganfeng Lithium...

Rikki Malik

Lithium Oversupply Persists: CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) Cushioned, Albemarle (ALB US) Under Pressure

Nikkei Asia reports CATL’s Jianxiawo mine will restart sooner than expected, pushing lithium carbonate futures down 5.7% to ~70,100 yuan/ton (–22%...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check

TOP STORY EVs / In Depth: Chinese EV-makers lured by Thai perks face reality check It’s hard to miss the aggressiveness of Chinese automakers in...

Caixin Global

China’s Lithium Mountain Grows as Oversupply Drags Down Prices Further

China’s lithium supply glut is worsening, with output expected to expand by 41% this year, fueling a steeper downward trend in prices for this...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

The most active lithium carbonate contract surged 9% to 95,200 yuan ($13,400) per ton today following a positive forecast from Ganfeng Lithium...

Rikki Malik

Lithium Oversupply Persists: CATL (300750 CH / 3750 HK) Cushioned, Albemarle (ALB US) Under Pressure

Nikkei Asia reports CATL’s Jianxiawo mine will restart sooner than expected, pushing lithium carbonate futures down 5.7% to ~70,100 yuan/ton (–22%...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check

TOP STORY EVs / In Depth: Chinese EV-makers lured by Thai perks face reality check It’s hard to miss the aggressiveness of Chinese automakers in...

Caixin Global

China’s Lithium Mountain Grows as Oversupply Drags Down Prices Further

China’s lithium supply glut is worsening, with output expected to expand by 41% this year, fueling a steeper downward trend in prices for this...

Caixin Global

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...