Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goviex-uranium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35742:1" rel="noopener">GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN)</a> will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Equity Bottom-Up

Lithium Americas Argentina Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.</li><li>In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.</li><li>Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.</li></ul>

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Siemens Energy is a major player in the global energy technology and service industry, with a significant role in global electricity generation.</li><li>The company is facing challenges in its wind turbine business but is well-positioned to benefit from power demand growth and decarbonization trends.</li><li>Analysts believe Siemens Energy has the potential to double in value over the next year due to its strong balance sheet, growing backlog, and attractive valuation.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Siemens Energy is a major player in the global energy technology and service industry, with a significant role in global electricity generation.The company is facing challenges in its wind turbine business but is well-positioned to benefit from power demand growth and decarbonization trends.Analysts believe Siemens Energy has the potential to double in value over the next year due to its strong balance sheet, growing backlog, and attractive valuation.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Siemens Energy (ENR GY) - Monday, May 13, 2024

Podcast by Dom Cooke to explore big businesses, Business Breakdowns

Business Breakdowns

Podcast by Dom Cooke to explore big businesses

Learn how companies work from the people who know them best. We do deep research and interview industry veterans, investment professionals, and corporate executives to explain the inner workings of public stocks and private businesses. For each company, we break down their history, business model, financial statements, secret sauce, and bull/bear case. We believe every business has lessons to teach us and Breakdowns is here to highlight them. Learn more and stay up to date at www.joincolossus.com.

<ul><li>Siemens Energy is a spin-off from Siemens focused on gas, power, and renewables, positioning itself at the forefront of the energy transition.</li><li>The company faces challenges, particularly in its renewables division, dealing with supply chain disruptions and technical issues.</li><li>Mark Heiley, founder of The Analyst, discusses Siemens Energy's history, impetus for demerger, and potential in addressing renewable energy challenges.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Siemens Energy is a spin-off from Siemens focused on gas, power, and renewables, positioning itself at the forefront of the energy transition.The company faces challenges, particularly in its renewables division, dealing with supply chain disruptions and technical issues.Mark Heiley, founder of The Analyst, discusses Siemens Energy's history, impetus for demerger, and potential in addressing renewable energy challenges.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Siemens Energy: Winds of Change - [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]

Germany

Siemens Energy AG operates as a renewable energy company. The Company offers power generation and transmission, technical consultancy, and operation and maintenance services. Siemens Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of...

Massif Capital Research

Siemens Energy (ENR GY) - Monday, May 13, 2024

Siemens Energy is a major player in the global energy technology and service industry, with a significant role in global electricity generation.

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Siemens Energy: Winds of Change - [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]

Public.com offers a 5.1% APY with no fees, featuring a Business Breakdowns series that includes a focus on Siemens Energy, a spin off from Siemens...

Business Breakdowns

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