Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. </li>
<li>Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. </li>
<li>Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. </li>
</ul>


The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. 
Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. 
Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. 


Toshiba (6502) - Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Schneider Electric Infrastructure / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We interacted with channels associated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skf-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4984:1" rel="noopener">SKF India Ltd (SKF IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6434:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schneider-electric-infrastructure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16778:1" rel="noopener">Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Sector tailwinds, market share gain ability and changing consumer preferences are all working in place for growth ahead.  </li>
<li>SCHFL stands out in terms of growth and margins, SCHN's channel feedback and recent performance in encouraging.</li>
</ul>


We interacted with channels associated with SKF India Ltd (SKF IN) , Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN) &amp; Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN).
Sector tailwinds, market share gain ability and changing consumer preferences are all working in place for growth ahead.  
SCHFL stands out in terms of growth and margins, SCHN's channel feedback and recent performance in encouraging.


India Channel Insight #48 | SKF, Schaeffler, Schneider

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We expect 5 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive trading will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biocon-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:398:1" rel="noopener">Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a>. </li>
<li>There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


We expect 5 changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.
The largest impact of passive trading will be on Page Industries (PAG IN), Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN), Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) and ABB India Ltd (ABB IN). 
There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

India

Siemens Ltd. has its operations in various areas: in the transportation sector it delivers high speed trains, in the lighting sector it manufactures small light bulbs. In the healthcare sector Siemens executes complete solutions for hospitals, for the industry sector it builds airports as well as produces contracts & for the communication segment it provides public network to mobiles.

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Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

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Travis Lundy

India Channel Insight #48 | SKF, Schaeffler, Schneider

This channel insight outlines our interactions with distributors of SKF India Ltd, Schaeffler India and Schneider Electric Infrastructure.

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

There should be 5 changes to the NIFTY100 in March. Quite a few names overlap with the potential AMFI reclassification of stocks which will result...

Brian Freitas

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

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