Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.</li>
<li>Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.</li>
<li>Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.</li>
</ul>


Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.
Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.
Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.


The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!</li>
<li>We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!
We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.


OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>More government  deals in the critical minerals sector support our outlook</li>
<li>Grasberg mine accident and closure highlights tightness in the copper market</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
More government  deals in the critical minerals sector support our outlook
Grasberg mine accident and closure highlights tightness in the copper market


Overview #36 - AI Hype, Mineral Might, and the Nuclear Revival

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> scheme meeting relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.</li>
<li>The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  </li>
<li>Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. </li>
</ul>


The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> has disclosed a binding offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.</li>
<li>The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. </li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) has disclosed a binding offer from Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).
The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.
The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

United States

Sigma Lithium Corporation is a Canadian company developing with an environmental sustainably ESG-focused strategy with hard rock lithium deposits. The Company produces low carbon high purity lithium concentrates. Sigma Lithium serves electric vehicle industries worldwide.

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Sigma Lithium (SGML US)

The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Lithium - A Critical Material Back in the Spotlight

The most active lithium carbonate contract surged 9% to 95,200 yuan ($13,400) per ton today following a positive forecast from Ganfeng Lithium...

Rikki Malik

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

Overview #36 - AI Hype, Mineral Might, and the Nuclear Revival

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent news impacting commodities

Rikki Malik

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

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