Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lx-semicon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20670:1" rel="noopener">LX Semicon (108320 KS)</a> is looking to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Shareholder meeting is 23 September and the transfer will happen soon after if approved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lx-semicon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20670:1" rel="noopener">LX Semicon (108320 KS)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> on the suspension date. There is zero chance of the stock being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Kospi 200 Index</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36097:1" rel="noopener">Nextin (348210 KS)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> in December but could be an early inclusion in  September to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lx-semicon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20670:1" rel="noopener">LX Semicon (108320 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>



LX Semicon (108320 KS) is looking to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Shareholder meeting is 23 September and the transfer will happen soon after if approved.

LX Semicon (108320 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on the suspension date. There is zero chance of the stock being included in the Kospi 200 Index.

Nextin (348210 KS) is a high probability inclusion to the KOSDAQ 150 Index in December but could be an early inclusion in  September to replace LX Semicon (108320 KS).


LX Semicon (108320 KS) - Section Change, Index Flow and KOSDAQ150 Replacement

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>LX Semicon announced that its board approved KOSPI migration on August 17. This migration requires shareholder approval, and a shareholder meeting will be scheduled for September 23.</li>
<li>The outflow of KOSDAQ 150 is estimated to be -1.37x ADTV. A passive impact of this magnitude should cause a price movement of at least 3%p.</li>
<li>But LX Semicon's GICS sector won't change after the KOSPI migration. We should refrain from trading with expectations for the possibility of KOSPI 200 inclusion at this point.</li>
</ul>


LX Semicon announced that its board approved KOSPI migration on August 17. This migration requires shareholder approval, and a shareholder meeting will be scheduled for September 23.
The outflow of KOSDAQ 150 is estimated to be -1.37x ADTV. A passive impact of this magnitude should cause a price movement of at least 3%p.
But LX Semicon's GICS sector won't change after the KOSPI migration. We should refrain from trading with expectations for the possibility of KOSPI 200 inclusion at this point.


LX Semicon KOSDAQ→KOSPI Migration Event: Index Rebalance Trading

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Another thing to consider in strategic trades aimed at the buying trend for yearend dividend hunting is the ₩1B majority shareholder transfer tax-triggered selling trend.</li>
<li>But the degree of direct conflict between the buying force targeting dividends and this factor at the point close to the ex-dividend date should not be as large as expected.</li>
<li>Considering a gradual preemptive sale of yearend tax evasion until the ex-dividend, we should consider shortening the trading time frame of the yearend dividend play close to the ex-dividend.</li>
</ul>


Another thing to consider in strategic trades aimed at the buying trend for yearend dividend hunting is the ₩1B majority shareholder transfer tax-triggered selling trend.
But the degree of direct conflict between the buying force targeting dividends and this factor at the point close to the ex-dividend date should not be as large as expected.
Considering a gradual preemptive sale of yearend tax evasion until the ex-dividend, we should consider shortening the trading time frame of the yearend dividend play close to the ex-dividend.


Yearend Dividend-Hunt Buying Vs. Majority Shareholder Transfer Tax-Triggered Selling

<ul>
<li>In Korea's local stock market, intense short-covering at the yearend dividend season has been consistently observed since mid-November. So, this post screens potential short-covering stocks.</li>
<li>KOSPI stocks meeting these screening factors include Kumho Petro Chemical, SK Inc, Lotte Shopping, Mirae Asset Securities, CJ Corp, and HiteJinro.</li>
<li>In the KOSDAQ, we can obtain the following results if the same screening factors are applied: LX Semicon, BH Co Ltd, and Seegene.</li>
</ul>


In Korea's local stock market, intense short-covering at the yearend dividend season has been consistently observed since mid-November. So, this post screens potential short-covering stocks.
KOSPI stocks meeting these screening factors include Kumho Petro Chemical, SK Inc, Lotte Shopping, Mirae Asset Securities, CJ Corp, and HiteJinro.
In the KOSDAQ, we can obtain the following results if the same screening factors are applied: LX Semicon, BH Co Ltd, and Seegene.


Potential Yearend Short-Covering Stocks in Korea

Shares outstandingThe total shares of each company are fixed. There will be no change to it.








Share structure
Pre-split
LG Corp
LX Holdings


Outstanding shares
175,871,808
160,322,613
77,745,975


Common
172,557,131
157,300,993
76,280,690


- Name
LG Corp
LG Corp
LX Holdings


- Ticker
003550
003550
-


- Current price
₩126,500
₩126,500
₩25,300


Pref
3,314,677
3,021,620
1,465,285


- Name
LG Corp 1P
LG Corp 1P
LX Holdings 1P


- Ticker
003555
003555
-


- Current price
₩99,500
₩99,500
₩19,900


Treasury shares - common
0
0
0


Treasury shares - pref
0
0
0


Common excl. treasury shares
172,557,131
157,300,993
76,280,690

Source: DART &amp; KRX

Discount to NAVLG Corp's previous closing price gives a 59.08%discount to the NAV at the last close, translating into a 61.67% discount for LG Corp and a 35.40% premium for LX Holdings.I made some changes in my calculation of NAV. I estimated each holding company's operating operation based on their latest de-consolidated operating profit. It is mostly brand royalty and office rental income. I used operating profit to exclude dividend income. 








Discount to NAV
Pre-split
LG Corp
LX Holdings


Value of listed holdings
₩41,155.3B
₩39,988.2B
₩1,167.1B


- % of Holdco market cap
188.54%
200.96%
60.48%


Value of unlisted holdings
₩2,631.7B
₩2,516.3B
₩115.4B


Stub value
-₩21,958.5B
-₩22,606.0B
₩647.4B


Stub value per share
-₩127,254
-₩143,712
₩8,488


Value of operating assets
₩7,940.0B
₩7,940.0B
₩0.0B


GAV
₩51,727.0B
₩50,444.6B
₩1,282.5B


GAV per share
₩299,767
₩320,688
₩16,812


Discount to GAV
57.80%
60.55%
-50.48%


Holdco net cash/debt
₩1,941.8B
₩1,770.0B
₩172.0B


Value of pref shares
₩329.8B
₩300.7B
₩29.2B


NAV
₩53,339.0B
₩51,913.9B
₩1,425.3B


NAV per share
₩309,109
₩330,029
₩18,685


Discount to NAV
59.08%
61.67%
-35.40%

Source: DART &amp; KRX

NAV compositionLG Corp has four major listed subsidiaries, accounting for 76.89% of the NAV. LX Holdings features three major listed subsidiaries, responsible for 81.89% of the NAV at the last close.








NAV composition
Pre-split
LG Corp
LX Holdings


LG Chem Ltd
39.36%
40.44%
-


LG Household &amp; Healthcare Ltd
15.03%
15.44%
-


LG Electronics Inc.
15.86%
16.29%
-


LG Uplus Corp
4.59%
4.72%
-


LG HAUSYS, LTD.
0.54%
-
20.29%


LG International Corp
0.59%
-
21.96%


Silicon Works Co Ltd
1.06%
-
39.64%


G II R Inc
0.07%
0.07%
-


LS Electric Co Ltd
0.06%
0.06%
-


LG CNS
2.81%
2.89%
-


Other - unlisted
2.12%
1.96%
8.09%


Operation
14.89%
15.29%
0.00%


Holdco net cash/debt
3.64%
3.41%
12.07%


Value of pref shares
-0.62%
-0.58%
-2.05%

Source: DART &amp; KRX



LG Corp Post-Spinoff NAV Update & Relisting Day Trade Approach

South Korea

LX Semicon Co., Ltd. designs, develops, and markets mixed-signal semiconductors. The Company utilizes its own algorithm and technologies to enhance the features and capabilities of flat panel displays that are used in electronic devices and mobile handsets. LX Semicon markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

LX Semicon (108320 KS)