Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> announced strong results, defying some worsening trends in volume, new listings, with quarterly profit growth rising from 11% to 28% to 34% YoY from 4Q22 to 2Q23 </li>
<li>Cost controls have been key to 31% 1H23 profit growth, with 0% growth depreciation, amortization, financing costs, and taxation, which can continue to support profit delta</li>
<li>Revenue growth of 18-19% YoY in each of the past 2 quarters is partly driven by new revenue streams, which can offset some weaknesses in traditional metrics</li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) announced strong results, defying some worsening trends in volume, new listings, with quarterly profit growth rising from 11% to 28% to 34% YoY from 4Q22 to 2Q23 
Cost controls have been key to 31% 1H23 profit growth, with 0% growth depreciation, amortization, financing costs, and taxation, which can continue to support profit delta
Revenue growth of 18-19% YoY in each of the past 2 quarters is partly driven by new revenue streams, which can offset some weaknesses in traditional metrics


HKEX (388 HK) - Exceptional Cost Controls, New Revenue Streams, Quarterly Profit Momentum

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


NSDL Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Margins Could Drag

<ul>
<li>National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


NSDL Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Position, Strong Revenue Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Event-Driven

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> announced that it held 60.06m shares (US$4.43bn) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> as of 30 September.</li>
<li>That caused the ADR to spike after-hours and the local shares have rallied 8% today to close the gap with the ADR.</li>
<li>The ADR premium is trading near the lows and with Berkshire buying up a substantial chunk, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR</a> should trade at a bigger premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (2330)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Overnight, Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) announced that it held 60.06m shares (US$4.43bn) of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) as of 30 September.
That caused the ADR to spike after-hours and the local shares have rallied 8% today to close the gap with the ADR.
The ADR premium is trading near the lows and with Berkshire buying up a substantial chunk, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR should trade at a bigger premium to Taiwan Semiconductor (2330).


TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Berkshire Buying Could Push ADR Premium Higher

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Singapore recently announced the pricing of its inaugural sovereign green bond issue marking Singapore's momentous entrée into the growing global sovereign green bond market.</li>
<li>Big deal, and big <em>impact</em>. Singapore's S$2.4 billion 50-year green bond ranks among the largest inaugural sovereign issuances and the proceeds are funding impactful "green projects."</li>
<li>Proceeds will fund two Clean Transportation projects (electric rail mass transit) and contribute to an 80% reduction in land transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.</li>
</ul>


Singapore recently announced the pricing of its inaugural sovereign green bond issue marking Singapore's momentous entrée into the growing global sovereign green bond market.
Big deal, and big impact. Singapore's S$2.4 billion 50-year green bond ranks among the largest inaugural sovereign issuances and the proceeds are funding impactful "green projects."
Proceeds will fund two Clean Transportation projects (electric rail mass transit) and contribute to an 80% reduction in land transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.


Singapore's Inaugural Green Bond: Big Deal, Big Impact

Singapore

Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses.  The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.

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SGX (SGX SP)

HKEX (388 HK) - Exceptional Cost Controls, New Revenue Streams, Quarterly Profit Momentum

Cost controls are exceptional in latest results, with strong investment income that can last, and new enhancements to drive continued revenue...

Daniel Tabbush

NSDL Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Margins Could Drag

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. In this note we talk about the not-so-positives...

Sumeet Singh

NSDL Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Position, Strong Revenue Growth

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects...

Sumeet Singh

TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Berkshire Buying Could Push ADR Premium Higher

Berkshire buying 60m TSM US will reduce supply. A rising SOX could increase demand for TSM US at the same time. The ADR premium to the local shares...

Brian Freitas

Singapore's Inaugural Green Bond: Big Deal, Big Impact

Singapore’s inaugural green bond is a big deal, in size and impact. It is one of the world’s largest debut issues and funds Clean Transportation...

Kyle Rudden

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