ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Private Capital Markets

<p>Recent news suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> have restarted discussions on a possible merger backed by SoftBank CEO and founder Masayoshi Son. Our view is that it seems this ride-hailing mega-merger becomes less-likely should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> take a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>. It was recently reported that it would invest US$3bn into the ride-hailing company, with some of this stake potentially coming out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US).</a></p>
<p>Quite apart from the fact that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> has only recently received investment from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US),</a> the company is also viewed as a  national champion in Indonesia, with high-profile shareholders such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and Djarum Group, who may object to the deal, under which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> may come out on top being the bigger company currently, in terms of recent valuations. </p>
<p>There has been much debate surrounding the incessant competition between so-called Super Apps Indonesia-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and Singapore headquartered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP),</a> as they vie for position in the former's home market and across the rest of South-East Asia.  Although originally both App-based ride-hailing companies, both now offer a much wider variety of services including food-delivery and crucially, digital payments, and other financial services. Gojek through Go-Pay and Grab through GrabPay regionally, and OVO in Indonesia, where it has a stake. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> dominates in its home market of Indonesia, which makes up 90% of its revenues but it is also presenting some challenges to Grab in Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam and possibly soon to be the Philippines and even Malaysia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> has been making in-roads into the App-based motorcycle and taxi business in Indonesia, as well as the food-delivery business through GrabFood with the use of heavy promotions and subsidies. Given a more recent focus on profitability plus the impact of COVID-19 PSBB (large scale social distancing) measures on all businesses, especially ride-hailing, it is undoubtedly feeling the pressure in Indonesia.</p>
<p>Both companies have formidable funding war chests, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> managing to complete its latest US$2.5bn round in the midst of the pandemic and topping this up again only a couple of months ago. Grab raised a whopping US$4.5bn in its last round and potentially another US$3bn round from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> though some of this may be existing shares. </p>
<p>In some ways, money is not the issue and it is the winning strategy that counts. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> has a history of frugality but has made a number of missteps in the last year, withdrawing some of its GoLife services, withdrawing GoMart, and a failed attempt at entering the Philippines. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> has been very aggressive in providing subsidies in its food businesses in Indonesia to gain share. It remains to be seen how this approach will pan out in the longer-term, especially in light of COVID-19, which has hit ride-hailing hard.</p>
<p>Future funding is another longer-term issue, despite the recent amounts that have been raised. In this respect, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> is better positioned after its very recent funding round, which brought in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)</a>. For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>, it was less certain until recently, at a time when Softbank is reeling from the WeWork and OYO experiences. Valuations of global comparable such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lyft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1" rel="noopener">Lyft Inc (LYFT US)</a> have also come under pressure, which suggests that we could see some markdown on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP),</a> especially with its higher exposure to ride-hailing. </p>

Recent news suggests that Grab (0967655D SP) and Gojek (1379371D IJ) have restarted discussions on a possible merger backed by SoftBank CEO and founder Masayoshi Son. Our view is that it seems this ride-hailing mega-merger becomes less-likely should Alibaba Group (BABA US) take a stake in Grab (0967655D SP). It was recently reported that it would invest US$3bn into the ride-hailing company, with some of this stake potentially coming out of Uber (UBER US).
Quite apart from the fact that Gojek (1379371D IJ) has only recently received investment from Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Paypal Holdings (PYPL US), the company is also viewed as a  national champion in Indonesia, with high-profile shareholders such as Astra International (ASII IJ) and Djarum Group, who may object to the deal, under which Grab (0967655D SP) may come out on top being the bigger company currently, in terms of recent valuations. 
There has been much debate surrounding the incessant competition between so-called Super Apps Indonesia-based Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Singapore headquartered Grab (0967655D SP), as they vie for position in the former's home market and across the rest of South-East Asia.  Although originally both App-based ride-hailing companies, both now offer a much wider variety of services including food-delivery and crucially, digital payments, and other financial services. Gojek through Go-Pay and Grab through GrabPay regionally, and OVO in Indonesia, where it has a stake. 
Tencent Holdings (700 HK) backed Gojek (1379371D IJ) dominates in its home market of Indonesia, which makes up 90% of its revenues but it is also presenting some challenges to Grab in Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam and possibly soon to be the Philippines and even Malaysia. 
Grab (0967655D SP) has been making in-roads into the App-based motorcycle and taxi business in Indonesia, as well as the food-delivery business through GrabFood with the use of heavy promotions and subsidies. Given a more recent focus on profitability plus the impact of COVID-19 PSBB (large scale social distancing) measures on all businesses, especially ride-hailing, it is undoubtedly feeling the pressure in Indonesia.
Both companies have formidable funding war chests, with Gojek (1379371D IJ) managing to complete its latest US$2.5bn round in the midst of the pandemic and topping this up again only a couple of months ago. Grab raised a whopping US$4.5bn in its last round and potentially another US$3bn round from Alibaba Group (BABA US) though some of this may be existing shares. 
In some ways, money is not the issue and it is the winning strategy that counts. Gojek (1379371D IJ) has a history of frugality but has made a number of missteps in the last year, withdrawing some of its GoLife services, withdrawing GoMart, and a failed attempt at entering the Philippines. Grab (0967655D SP) has been very aggressive in providing subsidies in its food businesses in Indonesia to gain share. It remains to be seen how this approach will pan out in the longer-term, especially in light of COVID-19, which has hit ride-hailing hard.
Future funding is another longer-term issue, despite the recent amounts that have been raised. In this respect, Gojek (1379371D IJ) is better positioned after its very recent funding round, which brought in Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Paypal Holdings (PYPL US). For Grab (0967655D SP), it was less certain until recently, at a time when Softbank is reeling from the WeWork and OYO experiences. Valuations of global comparable such as Uber (UBER US) and Lyft Inc (LYFT US) have also come under pressure, which suggests that we could see some markdown on Grab (0967655D SP), especially with its higher exposure to ride-hailing. 

Gojek and Grab - A Merger of the Super Apps on the Offing? We Think Not.

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-macro-bear-pressure-mounting-with-tactical-relief-from-2-400" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42932" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400</a> Insight is improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. That Insight was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a>.</strong></em></p>
</div>
<hr>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a></p>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalbe-farma-klbf-ij-a-nutritional-spin-off" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42533" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - A Nutritional Spin-Off?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits South East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company in light of news that the company is considering spinning off its Nutritionals division to raise around US$500m. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/link-net-tbk-pt-link-ij-summer-migration-at-last" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42829" rel="noopener">Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) - Summer Migration at Last,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's highest quality high-speed broadband provider following a call with managment, which focused on its recent results, as well as the decision to build its own pole infrastructure to carry its fibre.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singtel-make-the-call" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42900" rel="noopener">SingTel: Make The Call,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> zeros in on Singapore's leading telecom provider and finds deep value appearing in the stock.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-initiation-shrink-wrapping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42967" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> takes a first look at the upcoming spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> and IPO of SCG Packaging, which will get a lot of investor focus given ist size and share in of the packaging market in SE Asia. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-last-chance-before" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42886" rel="noopener">Sembcorp - Last Chance Before...</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> looks at the enormously dilutive rights issue and de-merger of Semcorp Marine. </p>
<p> In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-macro-bear-pressure-mounting-with-tactical-relief-from-2-400" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42932" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400,</a> technical analysis specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> works his technical magic on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-straits-times-index-sti" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22902:1" rel="noopener">FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).</a></p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ratch-3q20-earnings-to-improve-from-overseas-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42789" rel="noopener">RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings to Improve from Overseas Performance</a>, our friend at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB)</a> post its more recent analyst meeting, which left a positive impression.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/b-work-good-dividend-yield-makes-an-attractive-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42782" rel="noopener">B-WORK: Good Dividend Yield Makes an Attractive Investment,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bualuang-office-leasehold-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26187:1" rel="noopener">Bualuang Office Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (B-WORK TB)</a> and takes a positive view. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rbf-the-excessive-outperformance-may-come-to-a-halt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42788" rel="noopener">RBF: The Excessive Outperformance May Come to a Halt,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/r-b-food-supply-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28949:1" rel="noopener">R&amp;B Food Supply PCL (RBF TB)</a> to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price of THB9.25 from THB8.70, implying a downside of 9% from the current price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-acquisition-benefits-are-not-fully-priced-in-strong-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42785" rel="noopener">STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stonehenge-inter-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27353:1" rel="noopener">Stonehenge Inter (STI TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on his target of THB10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dod-strong-performance-deserves-a-re-rating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42676" rel="noopener">DOD: Strong Performance Deserves a Re-Rating,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dod-biotech-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26179:1" rel="noopener">DOD Biotech PCL (DOD TB)</a> to BUY from HOLD based on raising his target price to Bt10.70 from Bt7.55, implying an upside of 26% from the current price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vranda-the-calm-before-challenging-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42781" rel="noopener">VRANDA: The Calm Before Challenging Times,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> has a SELL recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/veranda-resort-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29176:1" rel="noopener">Veranda Resort PCL (VRANDA TB)</a> based on a target price of THB4.30, implying a downside of 26% from the current share price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-results-are-not-stunning-stay-on-hold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42784" rel="noopener">ACE: Results Are Not Stunning, Stay on HOLD,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/absolute-clean-energy-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29155:1" rel="noopener">Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB)</a> to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price to THB3.49 from THB2.64, implying an upside of 8% from the current price. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spa-weak-demand-continues-to-pressure-2h20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42813" rel="noopener">SPA: Weak Demand Continues to Pressure 2H20 Earnings,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> downgrades <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-wellness-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3765:1" rel="noopener">Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB)</a> from BUY to HOLD rating and cut his target price by 31% to THB6.6 to factor in weakening earnings momentum in 2H20. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gunkul-new-60mw-power-plant-to-drive-2h20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42820" rel="noopener">GUNKUL: New 60MW Power Plant to Drive 2H20 Earnings,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> maintain a BUY rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunkul-engineering-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15272:1" rel="noopener">Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB)</a> with a target price of THB3.24 derived using DCF method (WACC 7.8% and TG 1%) implying 11.4x FY20E PER or 0.5x relative PER to Thai utility sector. </p>
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/telecom-review-sept-2020-ais-and-asiasoft-get-aggressive-on-gaming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41022" rel="noopener">Telecom Review (Sept 2020): AIS and AsiaSoft Get Aggressive on Gaming,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at gaming, specifically related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asiasoft-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5429:1" rel="noopener">Asiasoft Corp (AS TB)</a> in Thailand. </p>


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400 Insight is improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. That Insight was published by Thomas Schroeder.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - A Nutritional Spin-Off?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits South East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company in light of news that the company is considering spinning off its Nutritionals division to raise around US$500m. 
In Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) - Summer Migration at Last, Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's highest quality high-speed broadband provider following a call with managment, which focused on its recent results, as well as the decision to build its own pole infrastructure to carry its fibre.  
In SingTel: Make The Call, David Blennerhassett zeros in on Singapore's leading telecom provider and finds deep value appearing in the stock.
In SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping, Arun George takes a first look at the upcoming spin-off from Siam Cement (SCC TB) and IPO of SCG Packaging, which will get a lot of investor focus given ist size and share in of the packaging market in SE Asia. 
In Sembcorp - Last Chance Before... Travis Lundy looks at the enormously dilutive rights issue and de-merger of Semcorp Marine. 
 In Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400, technical analysis specialist Thomas J. Monaco works his technical magic on the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).
In RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings to Improve from Overseas Performance, our friend at Country Group report back on Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB) post its more recent analyst meeting, which left a positive impression.  
In B-WORK: Good Dividend Yield Makes an Attractive Investment, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Bualuang Office Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (B-WORK TB) and takes a positive view. 
In RBF: The Excessive Outperformance May Come to a Halt, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on R&amp;B Food Supply PCL (RBF TB) to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price of THB9.25 from THB8.70, implying a downside of 9% from the current price. 
In STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Stonehenge Inter (STI TB) with a BUY recommendation based on his target of THB10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. 
In DOD: Strong Performance Deserves a Re-Rating, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on DOD Biotech PCL (DOD TB) to BUY from HOLD based on raising his target price to Bt10.70 from Bt7.55, implying an upside of 26% from the current price. 
In VRANDA: The Calm Before Challenging Times, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA has a SELL recommendation on Veranda Resort PCL (VRANDA TB) based on a target price of THB4.30, implying a downside of 26% from the current share price. 
In ACE: Results Are Not Stunning, Stay on HOLD, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB) to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price to THB3.49 from THB2.64, implying an upside of 8% from the current price. 
In SPA: Weak Demand Continues to Pressure 2H20 Earnings, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA downgrades Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB) from BUY to HOLD rating and cut his target price by 31% to THB6.6 to factor in weakening earnings momentum in 2H20. 
In GUNKUL: New 60MW Power Plant to Drive 2H20 Earnings, Country Group maintain a BUY rating on Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB) with a target price of THB3.24 derived using DCF method (WACC 7.8% and TG 1%) implying 11.4x FY20E PER or 0.5x relative PER to Thai utility sector. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Telecom Review (Sept 2020): AIS and AsiaSoft Get Aggressive on Gaming, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at gaming, specifically related to Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Asiasoft Corp (AS TB) in Thailand. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkama - Kalbe Spin-Off, SingTel's Deep Value, and Thailand's Gamers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Softbank, Cardinal Resources, Sembcorp, Intouch, SingTel, 58.Com

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Investors and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> have unerringly been disconnected in 2020. Shares are currently trading at their lowest level outside the GFC.</p>
<p>Sentiment was not helped by the 24% decline in EBITDA (excluding the results of its regional associates) for the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/1stqtr-BusinessUpdate.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=628134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June-ending quarter</a> announced the 14 August.</p>
</div>
<p>I see the implied stub - net of all its listed holdings - at an all-time low.</p>
<h2>Implied Stub (in S$/share) - Stripping Out All Listcos</h2>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/814/original/image_98073797421599099095235.png?1599099097" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156814"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: CapIQ, the orange band represents 2StDevs from the average</div>
<p>The discount to NAV of 44% is also around its widest ever recorded. </p>
<div>
<p>COVID-19 promotes tough market conditions. Yet SingTel appears to have overshot to the downside, providing an inexpensive entry into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a>.</p>
</div>


Investors and Singtel (ST SP) have unerringly been disconnected in 2020. Shares are currently trading at their lowest level outside the GFC.
Sentiment was not helped by the 24% decline in EBITDA (excluding the results of its regional associates) for the June-ending quarter announced the 14 August.

I see the implied stub - net of all its listed holdings - at an all-time low.
Implied Stub (in S$/share) - Stripping Out All Listcos

Source: CapIQ, the orange band represents 2StDevs from the average
The discount to NAV of 44% is also around its widest ever recorded. 

COVID-19 promotes tough market conditions. Yet SingTel appears to have overshot to the downside, providing an inexpensive entry into Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN).


<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The board of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> has <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=15985721258680&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> its investment in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> up to 10% of shares out, from 7.99% currently. Gulf reckons Intouch provides a steady dividend yield; but Investors expect listed companies to focus on their core competencies, and return excess capital to shareholders, so that <em>they </em>can invest it. </p>
</div>
</div>
<div>Preceding my comments on Intouch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-co-rusal-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8517:1" rel="noopener">United Co Rusal (486 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8122:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard Holdings (148 HK)</a>, are at the top of the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</div>
<div><hr></div>
<div>
<p><em>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20</em></p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...

The board of  Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) has approved its investment in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) up to 10% of shares out, from 7.99% currently. Gulf reckons Intouch provides a steady dividend yield; but Investors expect listed companies to focus on their core competencies, and return excess capital to shareholders, so that they can invest it. 


Preceding my comments on Intouch, United Co Rusal (486 HK) &amp; Kingboard Holdings (148 HK), are at the top of the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20


StubWorld: Gulf's Questionable Stake In Intouch

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) (ST SP)

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Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) (ST SP)

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StubWorld: Gulf's Questionable Stake In Intouch

This week in StubWorld ... The board of Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) has approved its investment in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH...

David Blennerhassett

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