Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus as it is one of the few global indexes that is not yet breaking down. Lastly, Turkey (ISE National 100) appears to offer an attractive pullback opportunity. Within EM, we highlight attractive opportunities across the technology, consumer discretionary, health care and communications sectors.

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus as it is one of the few global indexes that is not yet breaking down. Lastly, Turkey (ISE National 100) appears to offer an attractive pullback opportunity. Within EM, we highlight attractive opportunities across the technology, consumer discretionary, health care and communications sectors.

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

Stoxx Europe Small 200 Price Eur / Technical Analysis

With further consolidation likely for the broad indexes, we want to stick with areas of the market that have shown an ability to outperform despite the broader consolidation. For that we are returning to Technology and Services. Roughly half of today’s individual stock recommendations are domiciled in Japan, while the remainder hail from India and Russia.

With further consolidation likely for the broad indexes, we want to stick with areas of the market that have shown an ability to outperform despite the broader consolidation. For that we are returning to Technology and Services. Roughly half of today’s individual stock recommendations are domiciled in Japan, while the remainder hail from India and Russia.

Global Equity Strategy U.S. Fed Cut, Now What?

Taiwan

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

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Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

EM Outperforming; Favor EM over EAFE

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

Shift Exposure From EAFE to EM

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy U.S. Fed Cut, Now What?

With further consolidation likely for the broad indexes, we want to stick with areas of the market that have shown an ability to outperform despite...

Vermilion Research

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