HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The centralized procurement of interprovincial dental implants results were released. In our view, most of the profits from the midstream circulation and terminal sales of dental implants will be cleared.</li>
<li>We analyzed some key points of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-tigermed-consulting-co-ltd-1008d609-73bd-4d76-8315-b29502a448ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29212:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hbm-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29717:1" rel="noopener">HBM Holdings Limited (2142 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brii-biosciences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33014:1" rel="noopener">Brii Biosciences (2137 HK) and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jacobio-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29696:1" rel="noopener">Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1167 HK).</a>
</li>
<li>Many “successful investors” may not realize that their huge returns in the past are mainly due to unexpected capital market exit channel dividends, which is hard to be copied.</li>
</ul>


The centralized procurement of interprovincial dental implants results were released. In our view, most of the profits from the midstream circulation and terminal sales of dental implants will be cleared.
We analyzed some key points of Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK), HBM Holdings Limited (2142 HK), Brii Biosciences (2137 HK) and Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1167 HK).

Many “successful investors” may not realize that their huge returns in the past are mainly due to unexpected capital market exit channel dividends, which is hard to be copied.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.13)- Tigermed, HBM, Brii, Jacobio, Dental Implant, Successful Investors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Centralized procurement of interprovincial dental implants would open the bid on Jan.11. Korean brands and European brands are all included. There is “no safe haven” for products with consumption attributes.</li>
<li>In 2023, we are optimistic that China healthcare would gain more household expenditure in the “Long COVID” effect, thus generating excess returns under the logic of expanding domestic demand.</li>
<li>2023 should be better than 2022. There’re strong expectations but weak realities in 2023Q1-Q2, during which more trading opportunities occur. However, in Q3-Q4, investors may need to be careful.</li>
</ul>


Centralized procurement of interprovincial dental implants would open the bid on Jan.11. Korean brands and European brands are all included. There is “no safe haven” for products with consumption attributes.
In 2023, we are optimistic that China healthcare would gain more household expenditure in the “Long COVID” effect, thus generating excess returns under the logic of expanding domestic demand.
2023 should be better than 2022. There’re strong expectations but weak realities in 2023Q1-Q2, during which more trading opportunities occur. However, in Q3-Q4, investors may need to be careful.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.6) - Dental Implant VBP, “Long COVID” Effect, 2023 Is Better than 2022

<ul>
<li>This year's NRDL negotiations could be a turnaround. If the final result really shows a moderate price decline, it will be “a landmark event” for the innovative drug industry.</li>
<li>Starting from 23Q2, with the peak of respiratory disease/COVID-19 outbreak past, the demand for related TCM would weaken. Then, the pullback of TCM would really begin.</li>
<li>Even if biotech initially tells the story of becoming a biopharma to obtain financing, it will not be realized in the end.</li>
</ul>


This year's NRDL negotiations could be a turnaround. If the final result really shows a moderate price decline, it will be “a landmark event” for the innovative drug industry.
Starting from 23Q2, with the peak of respiratory disease/COVID-19 outbreak past, the demand for related TCM would weaken. Then, the pullback of TCM would really begin.
Even if biotech initially tells the story of becoming a biopharma to obtain financing, it will not be realized in the end.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.1) - NRDL Negotiation Turnaround, Pullback of TCM, Biotech Sales System

Hutchison China MediTech Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-china-meditech-ltd-7c2c4b58-ca71-4ac4-befb-345e8d0f10ca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27342:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison China MediTech Ltd (HCM US)</a> (Hutchmed) didn’t perform well. Its cash holdings could last about two and a half years considering the cash burn rate.</li>
<li>Hutchmed’s three major commercialized products would all face different challenges. Feedbacks from FDA/MAA cast a shadow on the Company's internationalization prospects. </li>
<li>According to the current speed of pharmaceutical innovation, Hutchmed’s R&amp;D efficiency/productivity is not satisfactory. The current pipeline does not have core competitiveness. Bearish on outlook.</li>
</ul>



Hutchison China MediTech Ltd (HCM US) (Hutchmed) didn’t perform well. Its cash holdings could last about two and a half years considering the cash burn rate.
Hutchmed’s three major commercialized products would all face different challenges. Feedbacks from FDA/MAA cast a shadow on the Company's internationalization prospects. 
According to the current speed of pharmaceutical innovation, Hutchmed’s R&amp;D efficiency/productivity is not satisfactory. The current pipeline does not have core competitiveness. Bearish on outlook.


Hutchison China MediTech (HCM.US/13.HK) - The Pain Points Become More Pronounced

<ul>
<li>If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. </li>
<li>We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.</li>
<li>We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.</li>
</ul>


If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. 
We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.
We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.


Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.13)- Tigermed, HBM, Brii, Jacobio, Dental Implant, Successful Investors

Dental implants VBP results were released-Time to say goodbye to high margins. We analyzed key points of Tigermed/HBM/Brii/Jacobio.Core factors of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.6) - Dental Implant VBP, “Long COVID” Effect, 2023 Is Better than 2022

Dental implant VBP would open the bid on Jan.11. Korean/European brands are included. China healthcare would gain more household expenditure due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.1) - NRDL Negotiation Turnaround, Pullback of TCM, Biotech Sales System

This year's NRDL negotiation could be “a landmark event” for innovative drug industry.Pullback of TCM may really begin from 23Q2.We analyzed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchison China MediTech (HCM.US/13.HK) - The Pain Points Become More Pronounced

Hutchmed's position in the industry isn't in the first echelon. Its commercialized products face different challenges, with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

Pfizer’s China business faces challenges due to VBP/NRDL negotiation and potential further deterioration of Sino-US relations. Together with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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