HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to disappointing performance in 24Q1-Q3, both revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 could face negative growth, but 2025 is expected to have positive growth.</li>
<li>As pharmaceutical distribution business can just maintain stable but medical device distribution business and retail pharmacies cannot contribute high growth, the overall performance of Sinopharm has lost growth momentum.</li>
<li>Due to longer payment cycles from hospitals and its business characteristics, Sinopharm is facing significant demands for working capital. Insufficient cash flow makes it difficult to increase the dividend rate.  </li>
</ul>


Due to disappointing performance in 24Q1-Q3, both revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 could face negative growth, but 2025 is expected to have positive growth.
As pharmaceutical distribution business can just maintain stable but medical device distribution business and retail pharmacies cannot contribute high growth, the overall performance of Sinopharm has lost growth momentum.
Due to longer payment cycles from hospitals and its business characteristics, Sinopharm is facing significant demands for working capital. Insufficient cash flow makes it difficult to increase the dividend rate.  


Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) - Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

<ul>
<li>Sinopharm will benefit from the strong expected growth in China’s healthcare spend.</li>
<li>There is scope to increase its distribution which will continue to shield the company from short-term volatility.</li>
<li>Pricing pressure in drug prices creates opportunity to optimise range and improve profitability.</li>
</ul>


Sinopharm will benefit from the strong expected growth in China’s healthcare spend.
There is scope to increase its distribution which will continue to shield the company from short-term volatility.
Pricing pressure in drug prices creates opportunity to optimise range and improve profitability.


Sinopharm (1099 HK) - A Compelling Investment Case

<ul>
<li>2024 would be the low point in performance/valuation of Sinopharm. Due to the low base in 2024, revenue/net profit in 2025 is expected to rebound (e.g. high single-digit positive growth).</li>
<li>Declining financial cost ratio is key driving force for profitability.Since the Fed would cut interest rate, a low interest rate environment helps Sinopharm reduce financial costs, thereby increasing profit margin.</li>
<li>Since China hopes to establish a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, it would help drive up valuation of SOEs.Thus, there’s valuation repair opportunity for Sinopharm (e.g. P/E return to 8).</li>
</ul>


2024 would be the low point in performance/valuation of Sinopharm. Due to the low base in 2024, revenue/net profit in 2025 is expected to rebound (e.g. high single-digit positive growth).
Declining financial cost ratio is key driving force for profitability.Since the Fed would cut interest rate, a low interest rate environment helps Sinopharm reduce financial costs, thereby increasing profit margin.
Since China hopes to establish a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, it would help drive up valuation of SOEs.Thus, there’s valuation repair opportunity for Sinopharm (e.g. P/E return to 8).


Sinopharm Group (1099.HK) - Don't Waste the Low Point of Performance, Valuation Will Bounce Back

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

China

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd is a pharmacy distribution company. The Company also owns several pharmacy enterprise groups in different industries such as logistics, retail stores, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical testing.

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Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) - Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

Sinopharm's disappointing results in 2024Q1-Q3 may see negative growth for the whole year, but 2025 is expected to rebound. Pain points lies in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Sinopharm (1099 HK) - A Compelling Investment Case

Sinopharm is well positioned to benefit from China’s expected strong growth in healthcare spend. The investment case is further strengthened by a...

daaimon

Sinopharm Group (1099.HK) - Don't Waste the Low Point of Performance, Valuation Will Bounce Back

Sinopharm's performance would rebound in 2025 due to low base in 2024, driven by declining financial cost ratio/SOE valuation repair...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) - Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

​Sinopharm's disappointing results in 2024Q1-Q3 may see negative growth for the whole year, but 2025 is expected to rebound. Pain points lies in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Sinopharm (1099 HK) - A Compelling Investment Case

Sinopharm is well positioned to benefit from China’s expected strong growth in healthcare spend. The investment case is further strengthened by a...

daaimon

Sinopharm Group (1099.HK) - Don't Waste the Low Point of Performance, Valuation Will Bounce Back

​Sinopharm's performance would rebound in 2025 due to low base in 2024, driven by declining financial cost ratio/SOE valuation repair...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sinopharm's disappointing results in 2024Q1-Q3 may see negative growth for the whole year, but 2025 is expected to rebound. Pain points lies in...

Sinopharm's performance would rebound in 2025 due to low base in 2024, driven by declining financial cost ratio/SOE valuation repair...

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...