China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right now.  Many have used the China blowing up thesis trying to replicate the Big Short.  This seems like a risky trade with a potentially very lengthy wait. There are other obvious trades in the interim that seem to have significantly positive risk adjusted return potential.  The trade today builds on one of the most widely recognized imbalances but creates…

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right now.  Many have used the China blowing up thesis trying to replicate the Big Short.  This seems like a risky trade with a potentially very lengthy wait. There are other obvious trades in the interim that seem to have significantly positive risk adjusted return potential.  The trade today builds on one of the most widely recognized imbalances but creates…

Industrial output data implies a continued further increase in the Chinese PMI number due May 1.  Steel output has made small gains in April over March in advance of the upcoming building season. PTA output has increased significantly in April over March while glass has inched up incrementally.  Coal output and inventories have trended downwards given the increasingly mild weather in spring between winter and summer peak load times.  We are anticipating an uptick in the official PMI given the…

Industrial output data implies a continued further increase in the Chinese PMI number due May 1.  Steel output has made small gains in April over March in advance of the upcoming building season. PTA output has increased significantly in April over March while glass has inched up incrementally.  Coal output and inventories have trended downwards given the increasingly mild weather in spring between winter and summer peak load times.  We are anticipating an uptick in the official PMI given the…

Chinese economic activity appears to be stabilizing in April.  We are not witnessing a pullback from the expansion in the real economy we saw post Chinese New Year in March but nor are we witnessing continued expansion.  Given the explosion in credit, the relative lack of continued expansion should be cause for concern.

Chinese economic activity appears to be stabilizing in April.  We are not witnessing a pullback from the expansion in the real economy we saw post Chinese New Year in March but nor are we witnessing continued expansion.  Given the explosion in credit, the relative lack of continued expansion should be cause for concern.

Chinese Flash Numbers Fail to Build on Post-New Year Bounce

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a greater or lesser portion of their fleet on spot rather than term charter or long-term lease - is now used by stock punters as "evidence" of dynamic demand for shipping services for commodities, and therefore underlying economic pull demand from the secondary sector (heavy and light industry), particularly in China. The big news is that it has bounced 105%…

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a greater or lesser portion of their fleet on spot rather than term charter or long-term lease - is now used by stock punters as "evidence" of dynamic demand for shipping services for commodities, and therefore underlying economic pull demand from the secondary sector (heavy and light industry), particularly in China. The big news is that it has bounced 105%…

Baltic Dry: 30yrs of Stats Tells You The Bounce You Now See Is Seasonal. Again.

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious. When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was not the top choice for a job but it did pay in dollars. The sole motive for me was the money and maybe I didn't want to be another software engineer from India. Tankers were the good ships (solely because they paid more). Dry bulk gave more leisure time..they stayed on ports longer, with job at Bergesen touted as the prized catch..they used to carry…

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious.   When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was not the top choice for a job but it did pay in dollars. The sole motive for me was the money and maybe I didn't want to be another software engineer from India.   Tankers were the good ships (solely because they paid more). Dry bulk gave more leisure time..they stayed on ports longer, with job at Bergesen touted as the prized catch..they used to carry…

China

Sinotrans Limited provides integrated logistics services with core service of sea, air, rail and road freight forwarding, express services and shipping agency services.  The Company also provides support services of storage and terminal services, trucking and marine transportation services.

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Sinotrans (598 HK)

Trading China: The Little Short

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right...

Christopher Balding

Chinese Industrial Data on PMI Release

Industrial output data implies a continued further increase in the Chinese PMI number due May 1. Steel output has made small gains in April over...

Christopher Balding

Chinese Flash Numbers Fail to Build on Post-New Year Bounce

Chinese economic activity appears to be stabilizing in April. We are not witnessing a pullback from the expansion in the real economy we saw post...

Christopher Balding

Baltic Dry: 30yrs of Stats Tells You The Bounce You Now See Is Seasonal. Again.

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a...

Travis Lundy

"Shipping Has to Become BORING Again"

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious. When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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