External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>What is new? China’s Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Finance jointly announced on 18 Mar a circular regarding the policy on truck replacement [关于实施老旧营运货车报废更新 的通知].</li><li>Subsidies level in 2025 will be largely the same as that in 2024. Key changes include: (1) the scope of subsidies cover the scrapping of both NES III &amp; IV trucks; (2) the purchase of all trucks (previously only diesel trucks) will be eligible for subsidies.</li><li>Our view: The new subsidy programme enhances our positive view on the HDT sales this year, as (1) the fleet size of NES IV HDT accounts for 30% of the total HDT, which is sizable, based on our estimates; and (2) most importantly, the scope of new purchase will include natural gas trucks this year, whereas only diesel trucks were included last year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

What is new? China’s Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Finance jointly announced on 18 Mar a circular regarding the policy on truck replacement [关于实施老旧营运货车报废更新 的通知].Subsidies level in 2025 will be largely the same as that in 2024. Key changes include: (1) the scope of subsidies cover the scrapping of both NES III &amp; IV trucks; (2) the purchase of all trucks (previously only diesel trucks) will be eligible for subsidies.Our view: The new subsidy programme enhances our positive view on the HDT sales this year, as (1) the fleet size of NES IV HDT accounts for 30% of the total HDT, which is sizable, based on our estimates; and (2) most importantly, the scope of new purchase will include natural gas trucks this year, whereas only diesel trucks were included last year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - New Subsidies on Truck Replacement Cover NES IV and Natural Gas Trucks

<ul><li>The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.</li><li>The approval of the plan has become likely (2/3 is needed) after winning support from the Greens last week.</li><li>In HK &amp; A share market, Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY), being the controlling shareholder of KION Group (KGX GR, NR) which is the major industrial truck manufacturer in Europe, will likely become a beneficiary. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.The approval of the plan has become likely (2/3 is needed) after winning support from the Greens last week.In HK &amp; A share market, Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY), being the controlling shareholder of KION Group (KGX GR, NR) which is the major industrial truck manufacturer in Europe, will likely become a beneficiary. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Who Are the Potential Beneficiaries of Germany’s Mega Infrastructure Investment Plan?

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Feb.</li><li>Unlike the stronger-than-expected earth-moving machinery (excavator and wheel loader) data that released last week (CMBI report: link), the picture for other machinery was unclear.</li><li>Forklifts and truck cranes saw growth in both domestic and overseas markets, while tower cranes (highly related to property) / aerial work platforms (AWPs) saw 33%/24% decline in China market despite a low base. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Feb.Unlike the stronger-than-expected earth-moving machinery (excavator and wheel loader) data that released last week (CMBI report: link), the picture for other machinery was unclear.Forklifts and truck cranes saw growth in both domestic and overseas markets, while tower cranes (highly related to property) / aerial work platforms (AWPs) saw 33%/24% decline in China market despite a low base. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Non-earth-moving machinery sales data mixed in Feb

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Dec 2024.</li><li>Export volume growth remained strong across all types of machines, in particular truck cranes and tower cranes that surged 67% YoY and 95% YoY respectively.</li><li>In China, overall demand saw little improvement, with excavator being the only product that saw growth in Dec. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Dec 2024.Export volume growth remained strong across all types of machines, in particular truck cranes and tower cranes that surged 67% YoY and 95% YoY respectively.In China, overall demand saw little improvement, with excavator being the only product that saw growth in Dec. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Export Volume Growth Across All Machines in Dec

<ul><li>We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales forecast by 10%/5% to 856k/ 954k units, following our cut in forecast in Aug, due to further deterioration of HDT demand over the last two months.</li><li>We now expect 5% YoY decline in HDT sales (China sales + exports) in 2024E, followed by 10%/9% recovery in 2025E/26E.</li><li>We are cautious on export market as Russia, the major market for Chinese trucks, will likely see further decline due to high base and impact of high tax recycling tax (starting in Oct).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales forecast by 10%/5% to 856k/ 954k units, following our cut in forecast in Aug, due to further deterioration of HDT demand over the last two months.We now expect 5% YoY decline in HDT sales (China sales + exports) in 2024E, followed by 10%/9% recovery in 2025E/26E.We are cautious on export market as Russia, the major market for Chinese trucks, will likely see further decline due to high base and impact of high tax recycling tax (starting in Oct).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Headwinds in 4Q24 in Both China & Export; Eyes on Policy-Driven Recovery in 2025

China

Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd is a heavy truck manufacturer in China.  The company specializes in the research, development and manufacturing of heavy trucks and related key parts and components, including cabins, engines and axles.

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Sinotruk Hong Kong (3808 HK)

Capital Goods - New Subsidies on Truck Replacement Cover NES IV and Natural Gas Trucks

China’s Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Finance jointly announced on 18 Mar a circular...

CMB International

Who Are the Potential Beneficiaries of Germany’s Mega Infrastructure Investment Plan?

The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.

CMB International

Capital Goods - Non-earth-moving machinery sales data mixed in Feb

We continue to favour earth-moving machinery which is the first to recover in both the project-level cycle and replacement cycle.

CMB International

Capital Goods - Export Volume Growth Across All Machines in Dec

Export volume growth remained strong across all types of machines, in particular truck cranes and tower cranes that surged 67% YoY and 95% YoY...

CMB International

Capital Goods - Headwinds in 4Q24 in Both China & Export; Eyes on Policy-Driven Recovery in 2025

We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales forecast by 10%/5% to 856k/ 954k units, following our cut in forecast in Aug, due to...

CMB International

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