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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge</li><li>The recent 90-day truce in the U.S.-China tariff war has prompted a flurry of activity among Chinese exporters, with traders rushing to ship goods overseas before tensions escalate again.</li><li>But at the same time a major shift is underway among exporters — many are now trying to sell those same goods at home, as they scramble to hedge their bets against future global instability.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedgeThe recent 90-day truce in the U.S.-China tariff war has prompted a flurry of activity among Chinese exporters, with traders rushing to ship goods overseas before tensions escalate again.But at the same time a major shift is underway among exporters — many are now trying to sell those same goods at home, as they scramble to hedge their bets against future global instability.

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,

Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,

Macau Gaming:  Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

Asia gaming and consumer discretionary analyst

Michael Ting

Despite the recent relaxation in travel visas to Macau from the Mainland, the recovery in sector revenues has been weaker than expected. Headwinds such as increased government scrutiny on capital outflow has likely hurt gaming sentiment demand from higher spending VIP and premium mass players. We expect these trends to continue and hence believe that Macau gaming stocks could underperform in the near term. However, beneficiaries of the capital outflow restrictions could boost domestic luxury demand and benefit stocks such as Chow Tai Fook whose share price is +17% MTD vs. -7% for the Hang Seng Index.

Despite the recent relaxation in travel visas to Macau from the Mainland, the recovery in sector revenues has been weaker than expected. Headwinds such as increased government scrutiny on capital outflow has likely hurt gaming sentiment demand from higher spending VIP and premium mass players. We expect these trends to continue and hence believe that Macau gaming stocks could underperform in the near term. However, beneficiaries of the capital outflow restrictions could boost domestic luxury demand and benefit stocks such as Chow Tai Fook whose share price is +17% MTD vs. -7% for the Hang Seng Index.

Macau: If It's Not One Thing, It's Another

Macau August GGR (gross gaming revenue) continued to be weak -94.5% yoy despite the resumption of visas from Zhuhai and the rest of Guangdong Province during the month. We expect September GGR to decline 94% yoy given lower seasonality. Our channel checks for October Golden Week hotel bookings indicate Macau travel demand could be weaker vs. previous Golden Week periods. Overall, we expect the recovery in Macau sector revenues to be a slow process. Top sector pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sjm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:805:1" rel="noopener">Sjm Holdings (880 HK)</a> .

Macau August GGR (gross gaming revenue) continued to be weak -94.5% yoy despite the resumption of visas from Zhuhai and the rest of Guangdong Province during the month. We expect September GGR to decline 94% yoy given lower seasonality. Our channel checks for October Golden Week hotel bookings indicate Macau travel demand could be weaker vs. previous Golden Week periods. Overall, we expect the recovery in Macau sector revenues to be a slow process. Top sector pick is Sjm Holdings (880 HK) .

Macau August GGR: When Do the Punters Return?

Hong Kong

SJM Holdings is a leading owner, operator, and developer of casinos and integrated entertainment resorts in Macau. The company's operations encompass casino gaming, hotels, dining, shopping, and wellness facilities. SJM Holdings was incorporated in Hong Kong in 2006 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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SJM Holdings (880 HK)

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge The recent 90-day truce in the U. S. -China...

Caixin Global

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Macau Gaming: Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

As sentiment begins to turn in Macau Gaming stocks, Global EM investors are positioned at their lowest levels in a decade.

Steven Holden

Macau: If It's Not One Thing, It's Another

The recovery in

Michael Ting

Macau August GGR: When Do the Punters Return?

Macau August GGR (gross gaming revenue) continued to be weak -95% yoy despite the resumption of visas from Zhuhai and the rest of Guangdong...

Michael Ting

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